Merger Arbitrage Mondays – April 9, 2012

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April 8, 2012 | Merger Arbitrage | | Author Asif

Merger activity decreased last week with two new deals announced and three closing.

You can find all the active deals listed below in our Merger Arbitrage Tool that automatically updates itself during market hours.

I received a question last week from an investor asking about the number of deals that fall apart so that he could estimate the risk associated with this strategy. There is always the risk of a deal falling through and there is a reason this strategy is also referred to as “risk” arbitrage. Check out this post on MarketFolly.com discussing the risk in risk arbitrage. After querying our database, I found that 209 mergers completed successfully in 2010 and 13 mergers failed. The success rate was 94%. In 2011, 175 deals completed successfully and 7 failed, implying a success rate of 96%.

Despite the concerns about Europe, the last two years have been relatively favorable for equity markets and there is a good chance we may see failure rates increase for mergers during times of turmoil. Those are usually the times when this strategy actually becomes interesting as spreads widen even for deals that don’t face a financing burden. For an introduction to the strategy, check out March 2009 post covering the acquisition of Wyeth by Pfizer (PFE).

Deal Statistics:

Total Number of Deals Closed in 2012 43
Total Number of Pending Deals
Cash Deals 34
Stock Deals 12
Stock & Cash Deals 5
Total Number of Pending Deals 51
Total Deal Size $357.62 billion

New Deals:

  1. The acquisition of DDi Corp (DDIC) by Viasystems (VIAS) for $268 million or $13.00 per share in cash.
  2. The acquisition of Allos Therapeutics (ALTH) by Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) for $206 million or $1.82 per share in cash plus one Contingent Value Right (CVR). This CVR entitles Allos stockholders to an additional payment of $0.11 per share in cash if certain European regulatory approval and commercialization milestones for FOLOTYN are achieved.

Deal Updates:

I received a couple of emails regarding the acquisition of China Advanced Construction Materials Group, Inc (CADC) as we had a closing date of March 31, 2012 in our database and the absolute spread on the deal is very high following a 9.33% drop in the stock last Friday. We have seen no communication about the deal from the company and will update the deal as more information becomes available. For now, we have updated the deal to reflect a closing date of 6/30/2012.

Closed Deals:

  1. The acquisition of Medco Health Solutions (MHS) by Express Scripts (ESRX) on April 2, 2012.
  2. The acquisition of Cogdell Spencer (CSA) by Ventas (VTR) on April 2, 2012.
  3. The acquisition of Taleo Corp (TLEO) by Oracle (ORCL) on April 5, 2012.

Top 10 deals with largest spreads:

Symbol Announced

Date

Acquiring

Company

Closing

Price

Last

Price

Closing

Date

Profit Annualized

Profit

CADC 10/24/2011 Novel Gain Holdings Limited (N/A) $2.65 $2.05 06/30/2012 29.27% 130.28%
TUDO 03/12/2012 Youku Inc. (YOKU) $35.41 $30.68 09/30/2012 15.41% 32.33%
VQ 01/16/2012 Denver Parent Corporation (N/A) $12.50 $10.98 06/30/2012 13.84% 61.62%
INCB 01/25/2012 Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) $24.40 $22.82 06/30/2012 6.91% 30.74%
EP 10/16/2011 Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) $32.30 $30.40 06/30/2012 6.23% 27.75%
VIST 01/26/2012 Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) $12.33 $11.71 09/30/2012 5.32% 11.16%
TAM 01/19/2011 LAN Airlines S.A. (LFL) $25.88 $24.84 06/30/2012 4.17% 18.55%
OPXT 03/26/2012 Oclaro, Inc. (OCLR) $1.65 $1.59 06/30/2012 4.08% 18.14%
SCMF 03/27/2012 Capital Bank Financial Corp (N/A) $2.88 $2.77 06/30/2012 3.97% 17.68%
HGIC 09/29/2011 Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co (N/A) $60.00 $58.18 06/30/2012 3.13% 13.92%

List of all pending deals:

Symbol Announced

Date

Acquiring

Company

Deal

Type

Closing

Value

Closing

Price

Last

Price

Volume Closing

Date

Profit Annu.

Profit

+ CADC 10/24/2011 Novel Gain Holdings Limited (N/A) All Cash N/A $2.65 $2.05 123,846 06/30/2012 29.27% 130.28%
+ TUDO 03/12/2012 Youku Inc. (YOKU) All Stock $1 billion $35.41 $30.68 124,579 09/30/2012 15.41% 32.33%
+ VQ 01/16/2012 Denver Parent Corporation (N/A) All Cash $1.5 billion $12.50 $10.98 331,742 06/30/2012 13.84% 61.62%
+ INCB 01/25/2012 Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) All Stock $79.2 million $24.40 $22.82 900 06/30/2012 6.91% 30.74%
+ EP 10/16/2011 Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) Cash Plus Stock $21 billion $32.30 $30.40 3,872,449 06/30/2012 6.23% 27.75%
+ VIST 01/26/2012 Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) All Stock 86 million $12.33 $11.71 10,375 09/30/2012 5.32% 11.16%
+ TAM 01/19/2011 LAN Airlines S.A. (LFL) All Stock N/A $25.88 $24.84 659,286 06/30/2012 4.17% 18.55%
+ OPXT 03/26/2012 Oclaro, Inc. (OCLR) All Stock $177 million $1.65 $1.59 1,216,029 06/30/2012 4.08% 18.14%
+ SCMF 03/27/2012 Capital Bank Financial Corp (N/A) All Cash N/A $2.88 $2.77 110,526 06/30/2012 3.97% 17.68%
+ HGIC 09/29/2011 Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co (N/A) All Cash $760 million $60.00 $58.18 42,201 06/30/2012 3.13% 13.92%
+ CNVO 01/17/2012 Blackbaud (BLKB) All Cash $275 million $16.00 $15.52 60,261 04/15/2012 3.09% 188.14%
+ MMI 08/15/2011 Google (GOOG) All Cash $12.5 billion $40.00 $38.83 6,966,784 06/30/2012 3.01% 13.41%
+ PGN 01/10/2011 Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) All Stock $13.7 billion $54.24 $52.74 3,599,351 07/01/2012 2.84% 12.47%
+ CTBC 10/26/2011 Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc. (BHLB) All Stock $30 million $8.64 $8.41 4,300 04/30/2012 2.70% 46.97%
+ LOOP 04/27/2011 CoStar Group (CSGP) Cash Plus Stock $860 million $19.05 $18.60 61,224 04/30/2012 2.43% 42.29%
+ GRRF 01/12/2012 Talenthome Management Limited (N/A) All Cash $71.45 milion $3.15 $3.08 34,403 06/30/2012 2.27% 10.12%
+ SURW 02/06/2012 Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. (CNSL) All Cash $340.9 million $23.00 $22.57 38,504 06/30/2012 1.91% 8.48%
+ GR 09/21/2011 United Technologies Corp. (UTX) All Cash $18.4 billion $127.50 $125.15 704,471 06/30/2012 1.88% 8.36%
+ FFFD 03/13/2012 Great Western Bancorporation, Inc. (N/A) All Cash $41.5 million $30.58 $30.18 200 08/31/2012 1.33% 3.36%
+ ABVT 03/19/2012 Zayo Group (N/A) All Cash $2.2 billion $84.00 $82.97 318,632 12/31/2069 1.24% 0.02%
+ RVSN 03/15/2012 Avaya (N/A) All Cash $230 million $11.85 $11.72 94,471 12/31/2069 1.11% 0.02%
+ EBTX 03/06/2012 Cadence Bancorp (N/A) All Cash $250 million $20.62 $20.40 55,600 12/31/2012 1.08% 1.48%
+ SOA 01/27/2012 Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) Cash Plus Stock $4.7 billion $28.25 $27.95 1,393,730 06/30/2012 1.07% 4.77%
+ PCBC 03/12/2012 UnionBanCal Corp. (N/A) All Cash $1.51 billion $46.00 $45.61 25,531 12/31/2012 0.86% 1.17%
+ ISTA 03/26/2012 Bausch + Lomb (N/A) All Cash $500 million $9.10 $9.04 265,923 06/30/2012 0.66% 2.95%
+ CRIC 12/28/2011 E-House (China) Holdings (EJ) Cash Plus Stock $603 million $5.48 $5.44 151,134 06/30/2012 0.66% 2.95%
+ CMFB 12/20/2011 Sandy Spring Bancorp Inc. (SASR) All Stock $25.4 million $14.43 $14.34 4,200 06/30/2012 0.62% 2.77%
+ SRLS 02/13/2012 Linden Capital Partners (N/A) All Cash $82 million $4.00 $3.98 89,121 06/30/2012 0.50% 2.24%
+ NVLS 12/14/2011 Lam Research Corp (LRCX) All Stock $3.3 billion $47.79 $47.56 1,369,017 06/30/2012 0.48% 2.15%
+ PBY 01/30/2012 The Gores Group (N/A) All Cash $1 billion $15.00 $14.93 440,811 06/30/2012 0.47% 2.09%
+ DDIC 04/04/2012 Viasystems Group Inc. (VIAS) All Cash $268 million $13.00 $12.94 1,207,215 07/31/2012 0.46% 1.50%
+ TRCR 03/07/2012 Nuance Communications (NUAN) All Cash $300 million $29.50 $29.37 212,874 09/30/2012 0.44% 0.93%
+ AEA 02/15/2012 Grupo Elektra (N/A) All Cash $780 million $10.50 $10.46 480,623 06/30/2012 0.38% 1.70%
+ ADGF 03/19/2012 TaylorMade-adidas Golf business (N/A) All Cash $70 million $10.80 $10.76 4,412 12/31/2069 0.37% 0.01%
+ TNB 01/30/2012 ABB Ltd (ABB) All Cash $3.9 billion $72.00 $71.76 728,132 06/30/2012 0.33% 1.49%
+ RRR 12/16/2011 United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Cash Plus Stock $1.9 billion $22.73 $22.65 637,733 06/30/2012 0.33% 1.48%
+ ALTH 04/05/2012 Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) All Cash $206 million $1.82 $1.815 82,761,816 06/30/2012 0.28% 1.23%
+ NST 10/18/2010 Northeast Utilities (NU) All Stock $4.17 billion $48.40 $48.30 588,136 04/16/2012 0.21% 10.76%
+ ARCL 03/05/2012 PLATO Learning (N/A) All Cash $291 million $11.10 $11.08 83,306 06/30/2012 0.18% 0.80%
+ ZOLL 03/12/2012 Asahi Kasei Corp (N/A) All Cash $2.21 billion $93.00 $92.84 198,701 06/30/2012 0.17% 0.77%
+ CV 07/12/2011 Gaz metro Limited Partnership (N/A) All Cash $702 million $35.25 $35.20 66,516 06/30/2012 0.14% 0.63%
+ CHUX 02/06/2012 Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF) All Cash $221 million $9.85 $9.85 169,086 06/30/2012 0.00% 0.00%
+ MDS 03/13/2012 TBC Corporation (N/A) All Cash $310 million $11.50 $11.50 200,451 06/30/2012 0.00% 0.00%
+ DFG 12/21/2011 Tokio Marine Holdings (N/A) All Cash $2.7 billion $44.80 $44.83 275,787 06/30/2012 -0.07% -0.30%
+ CRYP 02/02/2012 Amaya Gaming Group (N/A) All Cash $35.82 million $2.54 $2.55 108,832 04/30/2012 -0.39% -6.82%
+ COMV 03/26/2012 Peak Merger Corp (N/A) All Cash $49 million $1.75 $1.765 67,360 06/30/2012 -0.85% -3.78%
+ QSFT 03/09/2012 Insight Venture Partners (N/A) All Cash $2 billion $23.00 $23.25 538,748 09/30/2012 -1.08% -2.26%
+ CHG 02/21/2012 Fortis Inc. (N/A) All Cash $1.5 billion $65.00 $66.19 98,406 03/31/2013 -1.80% -1.84%
+ BXG 11/14/2011 BFC Financial Corporation (BFCF.PK) All Stock N/A $4.42 $4.67 50,823 06/30/2012 -5.27% -23.45%
+ PARL 12/23/2011 Perfumania Holdings, Inc. (PERF) All Stock $170 million $5.14 $5.61 191,526 06/30/2012 -8.45% -37.61%
+ WOLF 03/13/2012 An affiliate of Apollo Global Management, LLC (N/A) All Cash $703 million $5.00 $6.58 2,016,339 06/30/2012 -24.01% -106.88%



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