SINLetter - June
2007
Welcome to edition 23
of Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly
investment newsletter. The objective of this newsletter
is to provide you with unbiased initial research and
basic facts about individual stocks and other financial
instruments so that you can research them further before
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May
Blog and Forum Entries:
Continuing the trend
from the last two months, I did not blog much in May
but did get a chance to write or respond to some forum
posts. In case you missed them, given below are the
blog entries for May and some investing related discussions in
the forums,
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Portfolio Performance:
Revised GDP figures for the first quarter of 2007 showed
that economic growth almost ground to a halt with GDP
growth coming in at just 0.6%, down from the estimated
1.3% that was reported in late April. So while I had
the direction of the economy right, I did not anticipate
such a strong stock market. My slightly bearish outlook
and hedging activity through put options has certainly
impacted SINLetter portfolio returns over the last couple
of months.
Despite a pull back in
Unilever
(UL)
and the near annihilation of our Salesforce.com
(CRM) put options, the SINLetter portfolio managed
to close the month of May with only a tiny loss of 0.15%
thanks to strong gains in our April
pick EMC and gains in portfolio veterans Medifast
(MED)
and Tata
Motors (TTM).
However the monthly performance when compared to the
major indices was dismal as you can see below. The only
saving grace is that we have almost doubled our initial
$100,000 in less than two years without significant
monthly drops.
| Performance Metric |
Dow |
S&P 500 |
Nasdaq |
SINLetter |
| May 2007 |
4.32% |
3.25% |
3.15% |
-0.15% |
| Since Inception (Aug 2005) |
28.28% |
23.9% |
18.64% |
94.52% |
So what exactly happened
to our Salesforce.com
(CRM) put options? As I had expected, earnings were
actually hurt by the millions of dollars in stocks options
they had to expense and the stock dropped more than
5% the following day. However the options did not move
much and I made the fatal mistake of holding on to them.
The stock then took off on news about a partnership
between Google (GOOG)
and Salesforce.com, which now appears to be nothing
more than hype. It looks like founder and
CEO Marc
Benioff's marketing genius also rubs off on the
stock of Salesforce.com. At its current price
of $47.25, the stock is way too high for our $40 put
options to be worth anything and I am glad I only allocated
0.5% of the portfolio to this position. These options
will expire by June 15th and I will probably hold on
to them for another week to see if the weakness the
stock exhibited on May 31st continues.
Irish medical research
company ICON plc (ICLR)
has done very well over the last four months, registering
a gain of 24.37% since we picked
it in February 2007. The company reported another
outstanding quarter in late April with both earnings
and revenue beating analyst forecasts. Diluted
earnings per share increased 56% to 42 cents while revenue
increased 38% to $136.1 million when compared
to $98.5 million in the first quarter of 2006. The stock
hit an all-time high of $49.65 intraday on May 29th
but has retreated a little over the last two days. Given
that the company raised its revenue guidance for 2007,
has a solid balance sheet and a forward P/E of just
21.18, I plan to continue holding this company in the
SINLetter model portfolio.
It hard enough to arrive
at a fair valuation for a profitable company after taking
into account factors such as current earnings, growth
estimates, sector trends and even market sentiment but
to try to arrive at a valuation for a start-up or a
young unprofitable company is very difficult. This is
one of the reasons venture capitalists tend to spread
their bets on seed or early stage companies so that
even if one or two hit it big, they will more than make
up for the losses on the rest.
The only company in the
portfolio that is likely to keep me up at night is WisdomTree
Investments (WSDT.PK).
Every valuation method I have tried to use for this
company, whether it is discounted
cash flow analysis (I might as well throw darts
at a board), looking at what similar companies like
PowerShares were acquired for or using a percentage
of assets under management (AUM) has yielded a different
result. I almost considered selling WisdomTree when
the stock sailed past our purchase price of $7.40 in
mid-May and that wouldhave been a wise decision as the
stock dropped more than 20% in the last two weeks.
As mentioned in the blog
entry WisdomTree
AUM Climbs to $2.4 billion, it looks like the company
continues to grow AUM by about $500 million per month
and as of May 10th, had $3.8 billion in AUM. The company
plans to list
on the Nasdaq (pdf) by the end of 2007 and if it
can continue this rate of growth by introducing new
ETFs or offering its products in 401K retirement plans,
this recent pullback may be a great opportunity to get
into the stock. I picked some up for my personal portfolio
on May 31st but my position size is half my
usual position size because of the amount of risk and
the highly volatile nature of this stock. To
get a feeling for just how volatile this stock is, consider
the fact that it was up 20% in the sinletter portfolio
when I wrote my last blog entry about WisdomTree in
February and is now down more than 20%.
Gold had a tough month,
dropping to close the month of May at $660.60 per troy
ounce, a loss of $19.40 or 2.85%.
Portfolio
Readjustment:
This is a SINLetter first
but I am going to leave the portfolio untouched this
month. As mentioned below, I might add Gymboree to the
portfolio sometime in the near future.
Gymboree (GYMB)
$44.70
With over 581 Gymboree
retail stores, 57 Gymboree outlet stores and 81 Janie
and Jack stores, San Francisco based Gymboree
has positioned itself well since 1986 in the growing
area of clothes for children aged 0 to 12. While Gymboree
and its competitors Carter's (CRI)
and Children's Place (PLCE)
have been on my radar for quite some time, I started
taking a closer look at the group in early May. Unfortunately
the group as a whole had an outstanding month before
this newsletter was published and Gymboree gained 17.07%
in May. These gains were driven by better than expected
quarterly
results and because Gymboree raised its outlook
for 2007 to a range of $2.42 to $2.46 from its previous
guidance of $2.36 to $2.40.
As long-time SINLetter
readers are aware, I believe we are in the middle of
a "new baby boom", which I discussed in the
July
2006 edition of SINLetter. Beyond anecdotal evidence
of this trend, the US Census Bureau has stated that
the number of children aged 5 and under is expected
to grow more than 10% over the next decade. While this
is certainly favorable for children's retailers like
Gymboree, what excites me most about Gymboree at this
juncture is the company's decision to launch a new division
called Crazy
Eights. This new division will sell clothes at a
lower cost than its flagship brand and will target a
wider range of kids from age 0 to 14. Just like Carter's
entered Gymboree's space with its acquisition of OshKosh
kids stores in July 2005, Gymboree appears to be entering
Carter's space with the launch of Crazy Eights. If this
new brand succeeds and if management can retain focus
on the Gymboree brand, the stock has a lot of upward
potential. Crazy Eights could become to Gymboree what
Old Navy became to Gap (GPS).
With a P/E of 22.99 and
a P/S of 1.67, Gymboree does sell at a premium to its
competitors but the company also enjoys better operating
margins of 13.75% and a higher earnings growth rate
of 16.6%. Considering that the forward P/E of 15.85
is less than the average P/E of the S&P 500 and less
than Gymboree's 4 year P/E range of 17.1 to 34.2, this
company that has no debt on its balance sheet begins
to look quite attractive. The company also happens to
have about $5 per share in cash and short-term investments
on its balance sheet and will most likely be able to
fund the expansion of the Crazy Eights stores from cash
flow instead of debt.
Any discussion of a company
in the retail sector is not complete without looking
at an important metric called same-store
sales that compares the sales at stores that have
been open for a year or more. Gymboree saw same-store
sales growth of 3% in the first quarter and expects
same-store sales growth in the low-to-mid single digits
in the second quarter. It should be noted that in the
month of April, Gymboree actually saw same-store sales
drop by 5%. I am not sure how much of that could be
attributed to the shift of the Easter holiday to March.
Since the stock has appreciated
so much in such a short period of time, I am considering
waiting until the stock take a breather before initiating
a position just like I mentioned for Unilever (UL)
in the May
newsletter. In fact, with its recent pullback and
4.1% dividend yield, Unilever is beginning to look very
attractive right now, especially as the company plans
to pay its "final" dividend of 32.04 pence (63.4 cents)
sometime in June.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
1.72 |
Cash and Investments |
$156.82 million |
| P/E |
22.99 |
Short and Long Term Debt |
- |
After drafting some informationl for a second stock,
I decided not to feature it at the last moment. Instead,
I will write a more detailed Stocks
That Almost Made The Cut blog entry this month and
you can learn more about why I decided to scrap the
idea in that blog entry.
Every month we add featured stocks into a model portfolio
started with a cash position of $100,000 on August 2,
2005. To keep calculations simple, trading costs and
regular dividends are not included. Prices reflect the
closing price as of the last trading day of the previous
month (May 31, 2007 for the June 2007 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - May 31, 2007
Stocks
| Stock |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Diff ($) |
Diff (%) |
Date Added |
| UL |
200@32.53/share |
$6,506 |
$6,158 |
-$348 |
-5.35% |
5/11/2007 |
| EMC |
600@13.85/share |
$8,310 |
$10,134 |
$1,824 |
21.95% |
3/31/2007 |
| EPAX |
300@29.70/share |
$8,910 |
$10,284 |
$1,374 |
15.42% |
2/28/2007 |
| ICLR |
250@37.30/share |
$9,325 |
$11,598 |
$2,272 |
24.37% |
1/31/2007 |
| DO |
80@76.65/share |
$6,132 |
$7,550 |
$1,418 |
23.12% |
1/3/2007 |
| ALVR |
1000@6.87/share |
$6,870 |
$8,450 |
$1,580 |
23% |
1/3/2007 |
| WSDT.PK |
1000@7.40/share |
$7,400 |
$5,850 |
-$1,550 |
-20.95% |
11/30/2006 |
| BCS |
200@54.06/share |
$10,812 |
$11,446 |
$634 |
5.86% |
11/30/2006 |
| SNDK |
200@48.10/share |
$9,620 |
$8,710 |
-$910 |
-9.46% |
10/31/2006 |
| MAT |
300@19.70/share |
$5,910 |
$8,403 |
$2,493 |
42.18% |
9/30/2006 |
| TEVA |
300@35.05/share |
$10,515 |
$11,760 |
$1,245 |
11.84% |
9/1/2006 |
| STP |
400@25.93/share |
$10,372 |
$13,568 |
$3,196 |
30.81% |
7/31/2006 |
| INTC |
550@19.00/share |
$10,450 |
$12,199 |
$1,749 |
16.74% |
6/30/2006 |
| PG |
180@55.60/share |
$10,008 |
$11,439 |
$1,431 |
14.3% |
6/30/2006 |
| LOGI |
240@20.385/share |
$4,893 |
$6,415 |
$1,522 |
31.09% |
5/31/2006 |
| JNJ |
200@57.65/share |
$11,530 |
$12,654 |
$1,124 |
9.75% |
2/28/2006 |
| MED |
1000@6.955/share |
$6,955 |
$8,730 |
$1,775 |
25.52% |
11/30/2005 |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$16,776 |
$6,030 |
56.11% |
11/30/2005 |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$5,610 |
-$3,944 |
-41.28% |
8/1/2005 |
Options
| Option |
Number of Units |
Cost |
Current Value |
Diff ($) |
Diff (%) |
Date Added |
| CRMRH.X |
10@1.08/contract |
$1,080 |
$150 |
-$930 |
-86.11% |
5/11/2007 |
| CFCSH.X |
8@2.46/contract |
$1,968 |
$1,760 |
-$208 |
-10.57% |
1/3/2007 |
| LRXMJ.X |
3@7.00/contract |
$2,100 |
$1,140 |
-$960 |
-45.71% |
10/31/2006 |
| YBQMG.X |
8@2.60/contract |
$2,080 |
$1,480 |
-$600 |
-28.85% |
10/31/2006 |
| Cash |
|
|
$2,257 |
|
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$194,520 |
$94,520 |
94.52% |
|
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently
own shares of Airspan Networks (AIRN),
Medifast (MED),
Tata Motors (TTM),
Logitech (LOGI),
Intel (INTC),
Suntech Power (STP),
Teva (TEVA),
Mattel (MAT),
SanDisk (SNDK),
Alvarion (ALVR),
WisdomTree (WSDT.PK)
and Unilever (UL)
as well as put options on Salesforce.com (CRM),
Countrywide Financial (CFC)
and YRC Worldwide (YRCW).
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|