SINLetter - June
2008
Welcome to edition 34
of Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly
investment newsletter. The objective of this newsletter
is to provide you with unbiased initial research and
basic facts about individual stocks and other financial
instruments so that you can research them further before
deciding to add them to your portfolio or not. If you
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feel free to write
to me.
Subscriber
Number 2000:
It look us 19 months to
reach the 1,000 subscriber mark and an additional 14
months to reach 2,000 active confirmed subscribers this
May. After subscriber number 1,000 proved
elusive, I decided to bump up the prize for the
lucky subscriber number 2,000 to a $200 Amazon.com gift
certificate. James Altucher and Michelle Leder had agreed
to donate autographed copies of their books Trade
Like Warren Buffett and Financial
Fine Print respectively to subscriber number 1,000
and I might be able to convince them to do the same
for subscriber number 2,000 as well. So if you are the
lucky one, you can expect to hear from me this week.
My long-term goal with
this website is to launch an additional paid newsletter
or research service that picks stocks based on certain
special situations. While search engines and partner
websites have helped drive traffic to SINLetter, a large
number of our new subscribers were also on account of
word of mouth recommendations. So don't shy away from
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of this year. If just half of you were to recommend
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May
Blog Entries:
If you do not subscribe
to blog entries by email or in case you missed them,
here are the blog entries for May.
If you do not receive blog entries by email,
you can subscribe to receive
blog entries by email here.
Portfolio
Performance And Other Thoughts:
Solid gains in last month's
Brazilian commodity play Companhia
Siderurgica Nacional (SID),
EMC
Corp (EMC),
Diamond
Offshore Drilling (DO)
and Medifast
(MED)
helped offset additional losses in Tata
Motors (TTM)
and Barclays
PLC (BCS),
leaving the SINLetter model portfolio with a gain of
1.99% in May. As you can see from the table below, the
model portfolio outperformed the Dow and the S&P
500 in May but could not keep pace with the Nasdaq.
| Performance Metric |
Dow |
S&P 500 |
Nasdaq |
SINLetter |
| May 2008 |
-1.42% |
1.07% |
4.55% |
1.99% |
| Since Inception (Aug 2005) |
18.97% |
13.36% |
14.91% |
112.39% |
|
"Ask most economists
about inflation, and they'll tell you there
is no inflation, except in energy and health
care and housing. So as long as you don't have
a car, a cough or a roof, you have nothing to
worry about." - John Waggoner, Mutual
Fund Columnist, USA Today on the Nightly
Business Report. |
Something is not
right about this market. The consumer sentiment
index is at the lowest
level it has been in almost 28 years, GDP growth
in the last two quarters was an anemic 0.6% and 0.9%
(revised upwards), weekly jobless claims have
been rising, three regional banks have failed since
the start of the year and the number of banks on FDIC's
list of "problem banks" have jumped
in the second quarter of 2008. To top it all food
and energy costs are increasing rapidly but are not
completely reflected in official inflation number of
3.9%. Yet the market barely flirted with a 20% correction
from the highs set in early October and has actually
recovered almost half of those losses. As you can see
from my 2008
Outlook in the January newsletter, I started the
year saying "my enthusiasm for common U.S stocks
is the lowest it has been in years" and my
sentiment remains little changed right now. If there
ever was a time when proper asset allocation, diversification
and stock/sector picking were important, this seems
to be it.
Though I prefer to stick
mostly to just individual stock picking and do not have
a crystal ball to foretell what the future holds, not
paying heed to what the overall market is telling you
can be disastrous. A good example of this was when the
weak retail sector dragged down portfolio holding Gymboree
(GYMB)
all the way down to $26.69 and a paper loss of more
than 36% in the model portfolio. I recollect looking
at Gymboree' stock at around $28 with a valuation way
below Gap's (GPS)
despite Gymboree's solid growth prospects and asking
a colleague "how could the market possibly
value Gymboree at such a discount to troubled retailer
Gap?". My conviction of sticking with Gymboree
proved fruitful as the stock rebounded a whopping 72.87%
in less than 5 months and is now posting a gain of almost
10% in the model portfolio.
Lionsgate
Entertainment (LGF)
got a boost last Friday with the stock up more than
8% in anticipation of fourth
quarter results, which came out after the closing
bell. The company reported a 54% jump in revenue to
$511.5 million for the quarter ending March 31, 2008
and a 19% increase in net income to $29.8 million or
22 cents per share. For the full fiscal year 2008, the
company did not meet analyst expectations of a loss
of 50 cents per share and reported a loss of $74 million
or 62 cents a share. Investors reacted adversely to
this news and the stock dropped more than 4% in after
hours trading on Friday. As long-term investors in Lionsgate
are aware, the company decided to spend aggressively
on production and marketing earlier in the year and
while this impacted full year results, the benefits
were clearly evident in the fourth quarter. The company
generated $137 million in free cash flow in fiscal 2008
and its cash and cash equivalents grew to $371.6 million
from $215.05 million in the previous quarter. With a
"filmed entertainment backlog" of $437.4 million
(revenue that will be booked in the future), I see these
results as positive for the company but it will be interesting
to see how the market interprets them after the opening
bell on Monday.
After a volatile month,
Gold gave up most of its gains in the last week of May
to close the month at $877.00 per troy ounce, a gain
of just $0.40 or 0.04% for the month.
Portfolio
Readjustment:
As discussed in the portfolio
performance section above, Gymboree the stock has seen
quite a turn around (the company was doing just fine
all along) in recent months and is up 72.87% from the
lows set in early January. While we purchased the stock
at a higher level and are only seeing a gain of 9.8%,
given the state of the economy and sinking consumer
confidence, I believe it may be prudent to take profits
off the table with Gymboree at this time. I am going
to sell 200 shares of Gymboree from our model portfolio
and plan to sell Gymboree from my personal portfolio
after this newsletter goes out to subscribers. I still
like the long-term prospects of the company and will
move the stock to our watchlist in case the stock offers
an attractive reentry point in the future.
Textron Inc. (TXT)
$62.55
The Story:
As a follow up to my blog
entry Copter
Crisis: Investment Opportunity?, which focused on
the shortage of helicopters due to increased commercial
use and by offshore drilling platforms, I wanted to
focus on one of the six helicopter related companies
listed in the blog. After considering various factors
such as size of the company, operating margins, revenue
growth rate, insider ownership and valuation metrics,
I finally settled on Textron as the company with the
most potential over the next few years.
Founded in 1923, Textron
is an industrial conglomerate that makes everything
from electric golf carts to the Cessna
line of business jets and personal aircraft. The company
operates as five different segments called Bell (helicopters),
Cessna, Defense & Intelligence, Industrial and Finance.
Cessna is the largest segment at Textron representing
38% of 2007 revenue and 35.42% of Q1 2008 revenue. Bell
Helicopter, the third largest segment at Textron representing
19% of 2007 revenue, makes both commercial and defense
choppers. The latest innovation from Bell Helicopter
(in partnership with Boeing) is the Bell-Boeing
V-22 Osprey, which according to the V-22 website
is "the world's first production tilt rotor combining
the vertical performance of a helicopter with the high
speed and range of a fixed wing aircraft."
However the focus of this
investment thesis was the shortage of commercial helicopters
and it appears that demand for commercial choppers has
indeed been strong at Bell with the segment delivering
268 orders in 2007, significantly higher than the 181
deliveries made in 2006. Demand seems to have softened
in the first quarter of 2008 with revenue down $56 million
on account of lower helicopter volume but the segment
managed to post a $1 million increase in profit due
to higher pricing and in the words of the company "favorable
program performance".
|
While choppers may have
lead me to Textron, I think the truly exciting
part about the company is the potential growth in the
Cessna segment and the defense side of the business.
According to their website, the Cessna division has
built "more business jets than the combined
total of all competing aircraft" and in this
case it looks like the future could very well be a repetition
of the past with an order backlog of $14.5 billion,
up from $12.6 billion at the end of 2007. Its
latest and biggest business jet, the Cessna Citation
Columbus appears to be off to a good start with 36 orders
in the first quarter. The popular and smaller Cessna
Mustang has an order backlog that extends all the way
to 2011. NetJets, the leader in the fractional jet ownership
segment, uses a number of Cessna aircraft in its fleet
and interestingly Cessna also likes to play in the fractional
jet ownership market with its CitationShares
program. |
 |
Textron inked
a muti-year contract with the Department of Defense
in March to deliver 167 units of the V-22 Osprey over
five lots. The first of these five lots was
booked in the first quarter of 2008, helping nudge the
overall order backlog at Textron to $26 billion
at the end of Q1. This compares with an order
backlog of $18.8 billion at the end of 2007 and $12.9
billion at the end of 2006.
Numbers and Valuation:
In the first quarter of
2008 Textron reported revenues of $3.518 billion, up
18.7% from Q1 2007 and earnings per share from continuing
operations were $0.93, up 19.2% from the year ago period.
Free cash flow in the first quarter was $78 million
compared to $28 million in Q1 2007. For the full year
2008, the company expects to book revenue of $15.265
billion, representing revenue growth of 13.36% when
compared to 2007 revenue of $13.225 billion. Textron
recently bumped up its full year earnings expectations
to $3.80 to $4.00 per share, representing earnings
growth in the range of 5.8% to 11.4% when compared to
earnings of $3.59 in 2007.
The company expects to
generate cash flow of $1.3 billion in 2008 and free
cash flow of $700 to $750 million after capital expenditures.
Whether you look at Textron's
financial metrics such as return on equity or the fact
that the company ranked number 1 for the Aerospace
& Defense sector in Fortune magazine's list of America's
Most Admired Companies, it is evident that
Textron is a well run company. Given its growth prospects,
the company almost looks cheap with a forward P/E of
13.54, a P/S of 1.13 and a PEG ratio of 1.14.
A couple of negative
things to watch out for include problems in
the finance division where revenue increased $4 million
but profit dropped $10 million when compared to last
year due to increased loan provisions and the higher
cost of borrowing money. Non-performing assets increased
to 1.84% from 1.34% at the end of 2007.
CEO Lewis B. Campbell sold $36 million in company stock
in April and May. While insider sales may not necessarily
be negative, the magnitude of these sales certainly
caught my attention.
Conclusion:
This company is firing (pun intended) on all cylinders
and the drop in January that has left the stock down
more than 10% year-to-date provides an attractive point
of entry. In keeping with my policy of not investing
in defense and sin (or vice) stocks and because I am
actually scaling back on the stock portion of my portfolio
in anticipation of a big purchase, I do not plan to
add Textron to my personal portfolio.
Every month we add featured
stocks into a model portfolio started with a cash position
of $100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep calculations
simple, trading costs and regular dividends are not
included. Prices reflect the closing price as of the
last trading day of the previous month (May 31, 2008
for the June 2008 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - May 31, 2008
Long Stocks
| Stock |
Symbol |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Diff ($) |
Diff (%) |
Date Added |
| Textron |
TXT |
150@62.55/share |
$9,382.5 |
$9,382.5 |
$0
|
0%
|
5/31/2008 |
| Companhia
Siderurgica Nacional |
SID |
200@43.15/share |
$8,630 |
$9,834 |
$1,204
|
13.95%
|
4/30/2008 |
| Lionsgate
Entertainment |
LGF |
1,000@9.41/share |
$9,410 |
$10,650 |
$1,240
|
13.18%
|
2/29/2008 |
| Tata
Motors |
TTM |
500@17.52/share |
$8,760 |
$6,930 |
$-1,830 |
-20.89% |
2/29/2008 |
| Barclays
PLC |
BCS |
200@42.27/share |
$8,454 |
$5,986 |
$-2,468 |
-29.19% |
11/20/2007 |
| Powershares
Water Resources |
PHO |
400@22.10/share |
$8,840 |
$9,080 |
$240
|
2.71%
|
10/31/2007 |
| Marcus |
MCS |
500@19.94/share |
$9,970 |
$8,615 |
$-1,355 |
-13.59% |
9/14/2007 |
| Ultrashort
Russell 2000 |
TWM |
50@71.00/share |
$3,550 |
$3,381 |
$-169 |
-4.76% |
9/7/2007 |
| Blockbuster |
BBI |
3,000@3.925/share |
$11,775 |
$9,750 |
$-2,025 |
-17.2% |
7/9/2007 |
| Unilever
Plc |
UL |
200@32.53/share |
$6,506 |
$6,610 |
$104 |
1.6% |
5/11/2007 |
| EMC
Corp |
EMC |
600@13.85/share |
$8,310 |
$10,464 |
$2,154 |
25.92% |
3/31/2007 |
| ICON
Plc |
ICLR |
150@37.30/share |
$5,595 |
$10,575 |
$4,980 |
89.01% |
1/31/2007 |
| Diamond
Offshore Drilling |
DO |
80@76.65/share |
$6,132 |
$10,915 |
$4,783 |
78% |
1/3/2007 |
| Alvarion |
ALVR |
1000@6.87/share |
$6,870 |
$7,160 |
$290 |
4.22% |
1/3/2007 |
| WisdomTree
Investments |
WSDT.PK |
1000@7.40/share |
$7,400 |
$2,650 |
$-4,750 |
-64.19% |
11/30/2006 |
| Teva
Pharmaceutical |
TEVA |
300@35.05/share |
$10,515 |
$13,719 |
$3,204 |
30.47% |
9/1/2006 |
| Suntech
Power |
STP |
250@25.93/share |
$6,483 |
$10,635 |
$4,152 |
64.06% |
7/31/2006 |
| Procter
& Gamble |
PG |
180@55.60/share |
$10,008 |
$11,889 |
$1,881 |
18.79% |
6/30/2006 |
| Johnson
& Johnson |
JNJ |
200@57.65/share |
$11,530 |
$13,348 |
$1,818 |
15.77% |
2/28/2006 |
| Medifast |
MED |
1000@6.955/share |
$6,955 |
$5,850 |
$-1,105 |
-15.89% |
11/30/2005 |
| |
Cash |
|
|
$34,971.5 |
|
|
|
| |
Total |
|
|
$212,394 |
$112,394 |
112.39% |
|
Voluntary Disclosure: From the stocks
that are currently in the model portfolio, I own shares
of Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF),
Tata Motors (TTM),
Canon (CAJ),
PowerShares Water Resources (PHO),
Barclays (BCS),
Medifast (MED),
Suntech Power (STP),
Teva (TEVA),
Alvarion (ALVR),
WisdomTree (WSDT.PK),
Unilever (UL),
Gymboree (GYMB),
BlockBuster (BBI)
and Marcus (MCS).
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the completeness or accuracy of the content or data provided in this newsletter.
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for any investment decision made or action taken based upon the information
in this newsletter.
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making any investment decisions.
|