SINLetter - April 2006
Welcome to the ninth edition of the
Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter
that highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of
this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research
and basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
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Portfolio Performance:
VA Software (LNUX)
continues to remain the top performer in the SINLetter model portfolio
with strong gains of 161.75%, helping the overall model portfolio
register gains of 57.59% since its inception in August 2005.
This compares with a gain of 4.58% for the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, 6.58% for the Nasdaq and 4.81% for the S&P 500 over
the same time period. Recent gains in Medifast (MED),
Nokia (NOK),
Tata Motors (TTM)
and ATI Technologies (ATYT) also helped achieve
these spectacular results.
Medifast released stellar fourth quarter
results and I have posted highlights from the conference call
on my blog. The stock was
up 32.04% last month and I continue to like the long-term prospects
of Medifast. Nokia continued its upward trend with a 12% rise in
March. The company is now experimenting with mobile TV on its Nokia
7710 Widescreen Smartphone. On the other hand, Seagate (STX)
was down early in March on account of an analyst downgrade of rival
hard drive maker Western Digital (WDC)
based on a price war between Western Digital and Maxtor. The stock
recovered nicely only to drop once again on the announcement that
Samsung has come up with a 32
GB flash based hard drive that will be used in laptops. Considering
Seagate's excellent current valuation and the
prohibitive cost of these flash based hard drives, I still think Seagate has
additional upward potential. The market must have seen these drops
as buying opportunities as well and the stock closed down only -0.90%
in March.
ATI Technologies (ATYT)
reported better than expected second quarter results with revenue
coming in at $672 million, a 11% increase when compared to the second
quarter of last year and a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter. There
was a small 0.5% drop in gross margin during the second quarter
and a corresponding drop in profits but the company expects its
gross margins to improve almost 3% pushing it up to 30% in the next
quarter. The stock rose over 9% following the release of these results.
Portfolio Readjustment:
I was almost inclined to sell Unitedhealth
Group (UNH),
the only stock that is down in the SINLetter model portfolio, to
finance this month's purchases. The stock has seen a lot of downward
pressure recently thanks to a myriad of factors. Towards the end
of February, the company issued $3 billion of fixed income securities
(debt) to pay for its acquisition of PacifiCare. This was followed
by questions
about the timing of stock options that were granted to CEO William
McGuire. Finally there was speculation and rumors that Unitedhealth
Group may attempt to acquire yet another competitor. Unitedhealth
denied these rumors and an analyst with Prudential Financial recently
boosted his earnings projections for the company. Unitedhealth Group
is expected to report results on April 18th and I am going to hold
on to the stock in our model portfolio until I get a chance to listen
to their next earnings conference call.
To finance this month's purchases
I am going to take some profits in VA Software (LNUX) by selling
2,000 out of the 6,000 shares. I plan to continue holding it in
my personal portfolios as I expect additional upside to the stock
and for tax reasons. I am also selling our position in Ford (F)
and realizing the small 3.11% gain since we added it to our portfolio
three months ago. Ford shares have seen a lot of downward pressure
thanks to loss of market share and concerns about a possible bankruptcy
at GM.
Other Interesting Events:
I was recently asked to review a new book
called The Essentials of Trading by John Forman before it goes on sale later this month at Amazon.com. I have
posted a short review of this excellent book on my blog and you can check it
out here.
Research In Motion (RIMM),
the maker of the famous BlackBerry
wireless email devices finally settled its equally famous lawsuit
with NTP on March 3rd by agreeing to pay $612.5 million. This helped
avert a potential shutdown of service and the stock soared 15% on
the news. It currently trades at $84.88 per share. At a trailing
Price/Earnings of 46.36 and Price/Sales of 8.24, the stock is richly
valued. While users absolutely love their little BlackBerrys, the
device is no iPod. With Microsoft's Windows Mobile operating system
gaining traction and Nokia making a renewed push into this space
with its E
series, I feel that there will be increasing competitive pressure
on RIMM. Buying put
options in RIMM as a hedge against a long portfolio may be a
good idea at this time. PALM (PALM)
reported excellent fourth quarter earnings with revenue increasing
36% to $388.5 million and earnings almost doubling from $10.6 million
to $19.8 million thanks in part to the 102% increase in Treo sales.
This further validates my theory that RIMM is going to face stiff
competition in the near future.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
exploded upwards after reporting tasty results and the stock closed
at $55.39 on March 31, 2006. Google will soon become a part of the
S&P 500 index and the stock levitated almost $30 in after-hours
trading in response to this news. The release of Google's newest
beta product called Google
Finance was met with a mixed response as summarized by the reaction
of finance bloggers on the Internet
Stock Blog. Microsoft (MSFT) decided to delay the release of
its next generation operating system called Vista to early next
year. This news combined with a negative report by RBC capital about
pressure on Intel's (INTC)
gross margins thanks to competition from AMD drove Intel's stock
price to its lowest level in over two years.
The strength in the Indian stock market
is quite amazing. Shares of Infosys (INFY)
fell close to 15% after announcing disappointing results last quarter,
but Infosys has now recouped all of those losses. SINLetter pick
Wipro (WIT)
was also downgraded by Goldman Sachs on valuation concerns and after
a modest drop of 2.37%, the stock powered on to post even more gains.
Tata Motors (TTM)
faced similar pricing pressures early in March but rebounded quite
well and remains one of the top performing stocks in the SINLetter
model portfolio.
Without digressing any further, let
me present this month's featured stocks.
RCM Technologies (RCMT)
The Story:
RCM Technologies is a micro-cap company
(market capitalization below $100 million) that provides IT consulting,
engineering and staffing services. It also provides specialized
health care services. Some of RCM's clients include IBM, Lucent,
Pfizer, Merck and NASA. I find the company interesting for a variety
of reasons. The employment numbers have been very good in the recent
months and most of the large-cap staffing and consulting firms such
as Robert Half (RHI)
and MPS Group (MPS)
have seen their stock prices appreciate more than 50% over the last
year. RCM Technologies is in exactly the same market sector as these
bigger companies but remains relatively undiscovered.
RCM Tech recently announced full year
2005 results and while revenue came in only marginally higher than
the previous year at $180.6 million, earnings rose 59%
to $3.5 million from $2.2 million in the year ago period. While
these earnings are not spectacular, a comment by the Chairman and
CEO stating that recently awarded contracts will have a positive
impact on the results for the first quarter of 2006 and in the subsequent
quarters shows that the company can be expected to continue performing
well in 2006. The consulting and staffing sector is highly fragmented
and it is good to see that RCM Technologies is attempting to grow
through acquisitions as evidenced by its fourth quarter acquisition
of Soltre Technology.
RCM Technologies has a very strong
balance sheet with $64.12 million in current assets and just $31.08
million in current liabilities. For a company with a market cap
of $76.09 million and a current price of $6.48 per share, it would
mean that an investor would essentially be picking up this cash
flow positive company for about $3.67 a share. Insiders still hold
24% of the company and there have been no reported insider sales
over the last few months. I feel that there is a lot of upward potential
for RCM Technologies over the next 12 months. I plan to write to
the company with a series of additional questions and if they respond,
I will post the answers on my blog.
Competitors:
RCM Technologies faces competition
from a plethora of small and large companies that provide IT consulting
and staffing services. As mentioned above Robert Half (RHI),
MPS Group (MPS)
and Manpower Inc (MAN)
are the 800-pound gorillas in this sector. Some of the smaller competitors
include Volt Information Sciences (VOL)
and iGATE (IGTE).
The Good:
- Profitable company sporting attractive valuation with a forward
P/E of 11.57 and current Price/Sales of 0.40.
- Recently awarded contracts including an engineering contract to help restart two nuclear-generating units will be very positive for the company in 2006.
- A strong balance sheet with $64.12 million in current assets,
$31.08 million in current liabilities and no long-term debt.
- Relatively undiscovered company with large insider ownership.
The Bad:
- While earnings increased 59% for 2005, revenue growth was anemic and came in at 6.67%.
- Low operating and profit margins thanks to a highly competitive environment.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
0.40 |
Cash |
$12.33 Million |
| P/E |
21.53 |
Long Term Debt |
- |
Safeway
(SWY)
The Story:
Supermarket stocks are hot again with
Whole Foods (WFMI)
posting gains of over 30% and even Wild Oats (OATS)
showing a meteoric 100% rise in its stock price over the last year.
Supermarket investor Ron Burkle increased his stake of Wild Oats
to 15% through his hedge fund Yucaipa. I understand that by this
point you are thinking, "Wait a minute, is he not talking
about good old Safeway? How does that compare with Whole Foods or
Wild Oats and the massive growth associated with the organic food
industry". While Albertsons has been busy selling itself
to a consortium led by Supervalu Inc and CVS Corp, Safeway quietly
embarked upon a strategy to introduce organic food products in its
stores under the brand name "O Organics". The most interesting
part about this strategy is that these organic products are not
placed in a separate aisle nor are they priced higher than conventional
items. The "O Organics" version of the famous Oreo cookies
taste very similar to the original Oreos and in fact costs a little
less. Safeway has rolled out 150 organic products under this new
brand and the feedback has been positive from consumers. I got a
chance to sample a few of their organic products and liked most
of them.
Safeway is not alone in recognizing
that organic products are gaining widespread adoption and even Walmart
has recently introduced organic products in some of its stores.
All of this brings to mind the question, what about margins? Organic
products usually command a higher margin and hence could prove to
be more profitable. However with Safeway pricing the products at
or below the price of conventional items, they could loose the potential
gains in gross margins. It is entirely possible that Safeway is
using this pricing strategy primarily to introduce its organic line
of products and may increase prices in the future. I have seen the
upstart Progresso (a division of General Mills) line of soups effectively
steal market share from Campbell Soup (CPB)
with a similar introductory pricing strategy. Another concern with
Safeway aggressively rolling out their organic line of products
is supply. There are only so many certified organic farmers out
there and some organic lines such as dairy have been known to have
periodic shortages. It was not long ago that I found it hard to
lay my hands on a gallon of Horizon organic milk. Horizon Organic
was acquired by Dean Foods (DF)
and a supply problem could be very negative to a highly leveraged
company like Dean Foods. Dean Foods currently carries $3.3 billion
dollars in long-term debt, $108 million in short-term debt and just
$25 million in cash on its balance sheet.
My current interest in Safeway does
not just stem from its introduction of this new "O Organics"
product line. Large supermarkets and grocery stores usually operate
on razor thin margins and generate much of their income from high
volume and revenue. Safeway has been focusing on operating margins
and it increased its operating margin to 3.3% in 2005 from 1.6%
in 2004. This was done without sacrificing sales and revenue for
2005 was up 7.2%. While Safeway carries an intimidating $5.60 billion
in debt, it also lists $9.1 billion in property and equipment on
its balance sheet. Given that many of these properties are in prime
locations, their actual value is probably a whole lot more than
what is stated on the balance sheet. The company is also profitable
and generated over half a billion dollars in earnings last year.
With a forward looking P/E of 14.27 and a P/S of just 0.29, Safeway
could be a good stock to hold for the long-term.
Competitors:
Safeway faces competition from the Walmart (WMT) Superstores as well
as the usual suspects such as Albertsons (ABS) and Kroger (KR). With
its decision to sell organic food you could also consider Whole Foods
(WFMI)
and Wild Oats (OATS)
as competitors. The United Kingdom's largest grocer Tesco also plans to make its debut on the
West Coast of the United States in 2007.
The Good:
- The new "O Organics" line of products has received
positive feedback and could spur revenue growth.
- Operating margins improved in 2005 and the company generated
$561.1 million in net income.
- Attractive valuation with a forward P/E of 14.27 and current
Price/Sales of 0.29.
The Bad:
- Margins may be impacted in the short-term due to the cost of
rolling out this new product line.
- The United Kingdom's largest grocer Tesco plans to spend $400
million to start rolling out stores on the West Coast in 2007.
- A heavy debt load of $5.6 billion.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
0.29 |
Cash |
$373.3 Million |
| P/E |
20.14 |
Long Term Debt |
$5.60 Billion |
Every month we will add the two featured stocks into a model portfolio
started with a cash position of $100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep
calculations simple, trading costs are not included. Prices reflect
the closing price as of the last trading day of the previous month
(March 31, 2006 for the April 2006 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - April 1, 2006
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| RCMT |
1600@6.48/share |
$10,368 |
$10,368 |
$0 |
$0 |
| SWY |
300@25.12/share |
$7,536 |
$7,536 |
$0 |
$0 |
| PHG |
300@32.52/share |
$9,756 |
$10,095 |
$339 |
3.47% |
| JNJ |
200@57.65/share |
$11,530 |
$11,844 |
$314 |
2.72% |
| LNUX |
4000@1.83/share |
$7,320 |
$19,160 |
$11,840 |
161.75% |
| UNH |
100@59.42/share |
$5,942 |
$5,586 |
$-356 |
-5.99% |
| MED
|
2000@5.39/share |
$10,780 |
$18,460 |
$7,680 |
71.24% |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$18,756 |
$8,010 |
74.54% |
| STX |
350@14.49/share |
$5,072 |
$9,216 |
$4,144 |
81.71% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$12,432 |
$2,286 |
22.53% |
| WIT |
500@9.91/share |
$4,955 |
$7,435 |
$2,480 |
50.05% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$11,475 |
$1,921 |
20.11% |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$13,744 |
$3,304 |
31.65% |
| Cash |
|
|
$1,479 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$157,586 |
$57,586 |
57.59% |
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Wipro (WIT),
Nokia (NOK), Medifast
(MED), Tata Motors
(TTM), Ford (F),
Seagate Technologies (STX),
RCM Technologies (RCMT)
and VA Software (LNUX).
|