SINLetter - August 2005
This is the first edition of the Suria
Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter that
highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of this
newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research and
basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
Even if you are currently not an active investor, this newsletter
will hopefully prove to be a good starting point. If you need to
set up a brokerage account, at $5 per trade, Ameritrade
Izone offers a good option for inexpensive online trading.
Relevant links have been provided throughout this
newsletter to point you towards additional information. I
hope that you will enjoy reading this newsletter as much as I have
enjoyed creating it.
Airspan Networks Inc (AIRN)
The Story:
Almost all of you have either heard of or used laptops that are
equipped with a wireless card. Traditional wireless internet access
points that allow you to surf the internet wirelessly have a range
of about 150 feet. So after you have had your cup of coffee at the
local "wireless enabled" coffee shop, you will loose the
wireless internet connection when you leave the coffee shop. Wouldn't
it be great to have access to the same wireless internet connection
even from your home, office, airport or library without having to
set up a wireless access point at each location? Intel (INTC) and
other industry leaders have been working on a new wireless standard
called WIMAX for the
last few years. Using this new WIMAX standard,
it is possible to supply high-speed wireless internet access
over a 10-mile radius from a single wireless access point. This
is huge news for consumers, governments, companies, tech savvy folks,
system administrators and security professionals for a variety of reasons.
Airspan Networks is a wireless equipment provider based in Florida
and currently makes equipment that supports the WIMAX standard.
Apart from providing wireless access to the internet, WIMAX service
can also provide an alternative to DSL or Cable as a source of high-speed
internet access. In fact a company called
Clearwire is already
providing WIMAX based internet access to over a dozen cities across
the United States. With large-scale adoption of the WIMAX standard,
Airspan Networks could do significantly well in the coming months
and years. With no debt, 53 million in cash and a Price/Sales ratio
of 2.0, the fundamentals for this company look strong. Like most
new high growth companies, they currently do not have positive earnings
(Amazon.com did not have positive earnings until just a couple of years ago)
and this is reflected in the current stock price of $5.62. Intel has
already released a WIMAX chip and you can expect to see WIMAX enabled
laptops in 2006. Buying for the long-term when the price dips a little
may prove to be a good strategy. The quarterly earnings results are due out on
after the close of market on August 3, 2005 and since the company has already
warned that sales will be lower than expected this quarter, it will be
interesting to see how this stock behaves after the results come out.
Competitors:
A close competitor to Airspan Networks is Alvarion (ALVR)
which is based in Israel and also provides WIMAX equipment. Alvarion
already has positive earnings and could also prove to be a good investment
choice. However with a Price/Sales ratio of 2.57 and a quarterly revenue
growth rate of 28.1% when compared to Airspan's 78.9% growth rate, Airspan seems to be
a better option. Companies like Intel, Motorola (MOT) and Nokia (NOK) also stand to
gain from WIMAX but are not pure plays like Airspan Networks and Alvarion.
The Good:
- Strong fundamentals.
- High growth company in an area that has support from industry
leaders.
- Wall street has not yet fully "discovered" this company.
This can prove to be very beneficial for early investors.
The Bad:
- Negative earnings.
- A large company like Cisco could start making WIMAX equipment.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
2.00 |
Cash |
$53.3 Million |
| P/E |
N/A |
Long Term Debt |
- |
ATI Technologies Inc (ATYT)
The Story:
ATI Technologies is a company that makes graphics processors
and there is a very good chance that the computer you are using to read this newsletter has
an ATI graphics processor. Computer gaming requires tremendous resources to render the almost
realistic images found in many games today. Gamers and graphic artists usually pay a tidy sum
to buy the latest graphics processors released by ATI and its rival NVIDIA (NVDA). This has traditionally
lead to higher margins and increased free cash flow for ATI, accounting for much of the close to half
a billion dollars in cash that ATI carries on its balance sheet.
ATI Technologies is a classic example of a company that
is punished too hard for making a mistake. ATI fell from a price of $20 in November 2004 to
below $12 in July 2005. Much of this fall can be attributed to shrinking margins on account
of competition from Intel in the low-end notebook market and problems that ATI faced with
releasing its high-end R520 graphics processor. Since then the price has rebounded to $13,
but it still presents a significant value given the future growth prospects for ATI. The
next generation XBOX 360 gaming console by Microsoft which is slated for release before the
end of this year is going to use an ATI chip instead of the NVIDIA chip used in the original
XBOX. ATI is also making chips for HDTV and has already partnered with JVC. Anyone who has
seen the difference between HDTV and regular TV will realize that the growth in this market
is just getting started and will likely continue for years to come. With a current Price/Sales
ratio of 1.38 and Price/Earnings ratio 16.15, ATI Technologies looks like a bargain when
compared to Intel and NVIDIA. Hence ATI Technologies
looks like a good buy both for the intermediate term and for the long term.
Competitors:
ATI's closest competitor is NVIDIA
(NVDA) and it has
been taking over some market share from ATI in the recent past.
Intel (INTC) also
presents competition to ATI in the low-end graphic chip market as
Intel is furnishing more and more laptops with its own chips instead
of using ATI's chips.
The Good:
- Strong balance sheet with close to half a billion in cash and very little debt.
- Very low P/E when compared to the industry and other competitors.
- Potential increase in revenue from its HDTV chips and XBOX 360.
The Bad:
- Eroding market share to NVIDIA in the high-end market and to Intel in the low-end market.
- Lower margins and trouble rolling out its latest R520 graphics processor.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
1.38 |
Cash |
$446.8 Million |
| P/E |
16.15 |
Long Term Debt |
$28 Million |
Every month we will add the two stocks that are highlighted into a model portfolio started with a cash position of
$100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep calculations simple, trading costs are not included.
Model Portfolio - August 2, 2005
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$9,554 |
$0 |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$10,440 |
$0 |
| Cash |
|
|
$80,006 |
|
| Total |
|
|
$100,000 |
$0 |
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently do not own any shares of Airspan
Networks (AIRN)
or ATI Technologies (ATYT).
I do own shares of Ameritrade (AMTD).
|