SINLetter - August 2006
Welcome to the one year anniversary
edition of the Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free
monthly newsletter that highlights two publicly traded companies.
The objective of this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased
initial research and basic facts about individual stocks so that
you can then research them further before deciding to add them to
your portfolio or not. For those of you who are reading this and
are not already subscribed, you can subscribe by going to www.sinletter.com/subscribe.aspx
and you will start receiving this newsletter from next month. I
have provided relevant links throughout this newsletter, but if
you have any questions or comments, feel free to write to me.
Spread The Word: The last year
has been an amazing journey and learning experience for me. What
started out as a short newsletter that was sent out to a small list
of family and friends has blossomed into a comprehensive newsletter
(it takes longer to write each month) with hundreds of subscribers.
Most subscribers have been kind enough to tell me how they came
across SINLetter. Some of you found SINLetter through search engines
(all that search
engine optimization for keywords like investment
newsletter did pay off) while others found SINLetter through
the financial website SeekingAlpha,
which syndicates
my content. However a majority of you learnt about SINLetter
through word of mouth and family and friends. To help make it easier
for you to spread the word about SINLetter, we recently created
a Tell-A-Friend
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is the 1,000th confirmed subscriber, he or she will receive a $100
Amazon.com gift certificate and you will receive a surprise
gift as well. Please help us spread the word so that we
can continue to add new features like forums and eventually build
a vibrant community of investors.
Portfolio Performance:
The SINLetter
model portfolio outperformed the three major indices in July
with a gain of 1.62% powered by strong returns from ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Infosys
(INFY)
and Safeway (SWY).
The overall SINLetter model portfolio is now registering gains
of 57.52% since its inception in August 2005. This compares
with a gain of 5.29% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a loss
of 4.73% for the Nasdaq and a gain of 3.34% for the S&P 500 over
the same time period. A lot of companies in our model portfolio
reported earnings in July and some of these results and individual
stock performances are discussed below.
Logitech (LOGI),
which was featured in the June 2006 edition of SINLetter based on
the stock
split theory, was on a downward trend over the last two months
and dropped even more right after the stock split on July 18, 2006.
This drop in the stock price over came as a surprise since the company
would not have done a split and launched a buyback program had they
not been happy with their outlook. The company then reported strong
quarterly results with income increasing 35% to $30.1 million,
handily beating analyst expectations. The stock rebounded very strongly
and is now back at the level where we added it to our portfolio
two months ago. I continue to remain bullish on Logitech.
Infosys (INFY),
the other stock I picked based on the "stock split theory",
also delivered excellent quarterly results and the stock is now
posting a return of 16.4% over the last two months. For those of
you who are interested, I have summarized the quarterly earnings
report in a blog entry titled Infosys
Profit Jumps 50%, Sensex Weathers Attacks.
Our take about Eaton Corp (ETN)
doing well thanks to increased
aerospace activity was right on target as Eaton reported a
21%
jump in second-quarter profit. Other companies like Triumph Group
(TGI)
and Heico Corp (HEI)
that supply aircraft parts to Boeing (BA)
also did well. However Eaton, which is a diversified industrial
company, expects growth to slow down in the second half of the year
thanks to rising interest rates. The stock dropped after quarterly
results were released and is now registering a loss of 16.37% since
we added it to our portfolio. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a much
slower pace of 2.5% when compared to growth of 5.6% in the first quarter of 2006. If there are
further signs of economic weakness, I will consider selling Eaton from our model portfolio in the coming months.
Another stock in our portfolio that
is registering a big loss is Airspan Networks (AIRN).
I have discussed the problems faced by Airspan Networks and a potential
hedging strategy in a recent blog entry called Hedging
Your WIMAX Bet. I plan to continue holding Airspan in the SINLetter
model portfolio and my personal portfolio until there is more visibility
regarding the Yozan contract.
It looks like Airspan has
resolved its liquidity issues by issuing 100,000 additional
series B preferred shares to an existing investor Oak Investment
Partners and raising $29 million. I speculated that something similar
might happen in the previous
edition of SINLetter when I stated "existing shareholders
could face dilution if Airspan decides to issue more shares through
a private placement (Sirius Satellite Radio has mastered this art)".
Since each series B preferred share can be converted into 100 common
shares, the price Oak Investment Partners paid works out to $2.9
per share. Airspan shares closed at $1.88 on July 31st, 2006 and
I expect the stock to open higher on August 1st. You can read the
entire press release here.
The O
Organics story is finally playing out for Safeway (SWY)
as the grocer reported quarterly income that jumped up 83.73%
to $246.2 million and even raised its full-year outlook. This is
quite impressive for a retailer in the highly competitive and low
margin grocery segment. The stock jumped up 8.76% the day after
reporting quarterly results, its highest level in four years and
is now registering a gain of 11.78% since we added it to our portfolio
in April 2006.
Portfolio Readjustment:
SINLetter turns one year old on August
2, 2006 and I could not have asked for a nicer gift than the acquisition
of SINLetter pick ATI Technologies (ATYT)
by Intel's archrival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
for $5.4
billion dollars in cash and stock. ATI Technologies was featured
in the first
edition of SINLetter back in August 2005 when it was trading
at $13.05 per share. This acquisition of ATI by AMD, which worked
out to $20.47 per share based on AMD's closing price of $18.21 per
share on Friday July 21, 2006, represents a 56.86% premium
over our purchase price.
The process of portfolio readjustment
is very simple this time as I plan to sell ATI Technologies on account
of AMD's proposed acquisition. It is highly unlikely that ATI will
get a rival bid and I do not think investors will hold out for a
higher price. Since AMD is offering part cash and part stock to
acquire ATI Technologies, it is also likely that AMD's share price
could head lower in the short-term thanks to its price way with
Intel (INTC).
After the sale of ATI for a gain of 54.18% and
adding two new stocks this month, we will have 16 stocks in the
SINLetter
model portfolio. According to this
investopedia article, the benefits of diversification drop off
once you have 20 stocks in your portfolio. However it is important
that these 20 stocks belong to different sectors, market
caps (small cap, mid cap, large cap) and geographical locations.
Since I am a software engineer, I tend to be overweight in the tech
sector and hence hope to have a total of 25 to 30 stocks in the
SINLetter portfolio someday.
Other Interesting Events:
GDP growth slowed to 2.5% in the second
quarter of 2006 when compared to 5.6% in the first quarter and Wall
Street cheered the news sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average
up 119 points last Friday. The reason for this rather odd behavior
stems from Wall Street's hope that a slowdown in the economy may
give pause to additional interest rate hikes by Ben Bernanke and
his colleagues at the Fed. If the unemployment report due out this
Friday is not good, the Fed could pause and it may be a good time
to start looking at bond ETFs. I will post additional information
about bond ETFs on my blog
or in the next edition of SINLetter.
Natural Gas prices spiked 15% on July
31st and oil rose to $74.50 per barrel. This is negative for chemical
companies like Dow Chemical (DOW)
and DuPont (DD)
as they use a large amount of natural gas and have already felt
the burden of high natural gas prices. The high price of oil and
natural gas are positive for alternative forms of energy like solar
and form the basis for our featured pick Suntech Power Holdings
(STP).
Gold closed the month of July at $634.20 an ounce, a gain of about
3% for the month.
Now that the SINLetter model portfolio
has defensive stocks like Procter & Gamble (PG),
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
and Safeway (SWY),
I decided to pick some international high growth stocks that I have
been following for quite some time. While researching one of my
picks Sify (SIFY),
I came across some excellent analysis by fellow blogger and Seeking
Alpha contributor Himanshu Pandya. Himanshu's
website FinancialNirvana.com
has extensive coverage of Indian ADRs and his recently launched
sector
lists are very useful. I have exchanged emails with Himanshu
in the past and invited him to write about Sify for this edition
of SINLetter as a guest author and he was kind enough to accept.
So without digressing further, let us present this month's
picks.
Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
The Story:
Over the last few years I have been
fascinated by solar energy and the impact it can have on our world.
If plants can use sunlight to create food, why have humans with
all our technological and scientific advances, found it difficult
to harness solar energy in a meaningful way? One of the problems
that solar energy faced along with other forms of alternative energy
was that it was not competitive on a cost basis with fossil fuels
like coal and oil and hence did not get enough investment capital
or government funding. As the price of oil jumped up more
than 600% from a low of about $10 a barrel in late 1998
to over $75 a barrel in 2006, interest and investment in alternative
forms of energy spiked. The holy grail of solar energy has been
generating more electricity from solar cells, which are also known
as photovoltaic
cells. Photovoltaic cells are built using silicon wafers and
commercially have an efficiency of about 14 to 16 percent.
Many new companies are developing
various ways to generate more electricity from less silicon, through
techniques ranging from thin
film technology to a patented system called the SunFlower
250 developed by an IdeaLab
company called Energy Innovations. The SunFlower 250 uses 25 moving
mirrors to focus sunlight onto a solar cell array mounted above.
Suntech
Power is a Chinese solar energy company that uses thin film
technology to build photovoltaic cells. Suntech is one of
the few profitable companies in this sector and has been
profitable since 2003.
I have been watching the solar energy
sector and Wall Street's short love affair with companies like Suntech,
which fueled Suntech's shares up more than 200% since it went public
at $15 a share in December 2005. With the entire sector falling
out of favor thanks to concerns about polysilicon supply and eroding
margins, Suntech's stock has lost almost half of its value in recent
months. Suntech currently appears to be very richly valued with
a Price/Earnings ratio of 86.43 and a Price/Sales ratio of 13.57.
I would never consider paying 13.57 time annual sales for a company
unless it had an absolutely amazing growth rate. Suntech seems to
fit the bill with revenue growth of 188% in 2005 and an expected
grow rate of 126% this year. Based on their first quarter
2006 revenue growth rate of over 130% and their projected
revenue growth of 163% to 179% in the second quarter of 2006, it
looks like they will handily beat analyst expectations for full
year 2006 revenue growth.
Apart from Suntech's profitability
and high growth rate, there were two other events that got me interested
in Suntech Power. The first event was the $1.25
million contract Suntech won to supply 130 KW of solar energy
for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The Chinese government is very keen
to wean itself off electricity generated from fossil fuels like
coal. This comes as no surprise when you consider the following
facts from this
New York Times article (subscription required),
"China uses more coal than
the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it
has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two
years in the broadest industrialization ever."
"The increase in global-warming
gases from China's coal use will probably exceed that for all industrialized
countries combined over the next 25 years, surpassing by five times
the reduction in such emissions that the Kyoto Protocol seeks."
China's gross domestic product (GDP)
grew by an extraordinary 11.3% in the second quarter of 2006 when
compared to a 2.5% growth rate in the United States. Given this
amazing GDP growth, China is very interested in building energy
efficient cities (incidentally New York City is now one of the most
energy efficient cities in the United States thanks to increased
adoption of green
architecture) and is investing in sources of clean energy. Suntech
is likely to benefit from this trend and could potentially win additional
contracts like the 2008 Beijing Olympics contract.
If you would prefer to invest in solar
energy but not in a company that produces solar panels, you could
also go one step deeper into the solar food chain and consider investing
in a company like MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR).
MEMC is one of the leading companies that produce polysilicon, which
is used by companies like Suntech power to create their solar panels.
Polysilicon has been in great demand in recent months leading to
price increases and hence better margins for MEMC. In fact, MEMC
released quarterly results on Thursday, July 27 and reported
profits that more than doubled to $81.9 million in the second
quarter when compared to the same quarter last year.
MEMC recently signed
an agreement with Suntech to provide polysilicon to Suntech
over a 10 year period. This 10 year agreement was the second event
that made me decide to feature Suntech in this month's SINLetter.
MEMC will supply between $5 to $6 billion of polysilicon
to Suntech over a 10 year period. According to full year
2005 results from Suntech, cost of goods came in at $157 million.
If we consider that $100 million of this amount was for polysilicon,
then the only way Suntech would need $5 to $6 billion of polysilicon
in a 10 year period would be if it were to grow at an annual
pace of 50% for 10 years. This is a very strong signal
from Suntech and the drop in price from an intraday high of $45.95
on January 23, 2006 to the current $25.93 could make Suntech a bright
long-term investment. For a glimpse of the future, consider the
following statement by Suntech's CFO Amy Zhang during the first
quarter 2006 conference
call,
"Total net revenues in the second
quarter are expected to be in the range of $110 million to $117
million, representing year-over-year growth in the range of 163%
to 179%."
Competitors:
SunPower (SPWR),
Evergreen Solar (ESLR), DayStar Technologies (DSTI), Kyocera (KYO)
and Emcore (EMKR) are direct competitors of Suntech Power.
Suntech also faces competition from companies that create other forms of alternative
energy such as wind and fuel cells. Some examples include the aptly
named Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), General
Electric (GE) on account of its wind turbines division
and fuel cell stocks like Hoku Scientific (HOKU),
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power
Systems (BLDP).
The Good:
- Suntech Power has an astounding triple digit revenue growth
rate and is expected to grow more than 126% in 2006.
- Suntech is one of the few profitable solar energy companies
and has been profitable since 2003, a year after inception.
- The Chinese economy grew at a red-hot rate of 11.3% in the second
quarter and the government is keen on investing in alternative
sources of energy.
- Suntech has allayed investor fears about polysilicon shortage
by recently signing a 10 year supply contract with MEMC Electronic
Materials.
- Suntech beat analyst expectations when it reported first quarter
2006 results and improved both gross and operating margins.
The Bad:
- Suntech, along with other alternative energy stocks has been
very volatile in recent months, experiencing wild price swings.
Just ask anyone who invested in Suntech Power or Evergreen Solar
six
months ago in the midst of the alternative energy craze.
- A very rich valuation with a current P/E of 86.43 and P/S of
13.57.
- Supply and price of polysilicon, the raw material used to produce
photovoltaic cells, are a big concern. The recent 10 year agreement
between MEMC and Suntech should hopefully help alleviate this
problem.
- Some investors continue to remain skeptical about investing
in Chinese companies and are worried about the derailment of the
Chinese economy due to governmental interference or the growing
gap between the rich and the poor, which has lead to many riots
in rural China. Oddly enough there was a story
about this in Barron's magazine just last weekend.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
13.57 |
Cash |
$359.3 Million |
| P/E |
86.43 |
Long Term Debt |
$3.7 Million |
Update: On August 2nd, a day after this newsletter
was sent out to subscribers, Suntech Power (STP)
decided to acquire a leading Japanese solar company MSK Corp in
a two-step
transaction worth up to $300 million. Suntech's stock
shot up almost 10% that very same day. On August 4th, Goldman
Sachs intiated coverage of Suntech Power with a buy rating.
Sify Ltd.
(SIFY)
by Himanshu Pandya of FinancialNirvana.com
The Story:
Sify is an Indian company with a foothold
in everything (I do mean everything) to do with the Internet in
India. According to the Internet
& Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), at the end of 2005,
India had about 38 million internet users and the number
is expected to rise to 100 million users by end of 2008.
The current internet penetration in India is barely 5% and will
only be 10% by 2008, when it reaches the 100 million mark. Sify,
so far, has been an underachieving company but there is hope for
the future. Raju Vegesna (A Silicon Valley based investor and founder
of ServerWorks, which was later sold to Broadcom) bought a majority
stake (as well as became the chairman) in Sify late last year, igniting
a run in the stock from about $5 to the mid teens. Raju Vegesna
took over as the CEO in an announcement made on July 18, 2006 and
Wall Street reacted negatively, pushing the stock down considerably
in recent weeks. I am however willing to give Raju Vegesna a chance
to see if he can fulfill the potential of this company. Having a
US based CEO is a plus for Sify as it needs to expand internationally
and find ways to make money overseas. This is exactly the number
one priority of the new CEO. If he can gain leverage internationally
there is a lot of potential for Sify in the short term and the long-term
prospects for this company is a no-brainer given the expected rise
in internet usage in India.
Sify has positioned itself to take
advantage of this growth in a big way. Let us look at everything
Sify is involved in:
- Portals: Sify has one of the most popular portal in India (Sify.com)
and recently launched India's first broadband portal SifyMax.com.
One of its new initiatives is launching localized portals for
major Indian cities. So far Sify has launched BangaloreLive.in
and MumbaiLive.in,
which are broadband portals with lots of local content for people
living in those cities. This is a first in India and I see a lot
of potential in this. Portals for other cities will be launched
soon. The company recently bought a travel portal catering to
the US - India travel segment called Globe-Travels.com.
Portals are one area where Sify always underachieved but the recent
initiatives are paying off. The portal business grew by
96% year-over-year when Sify reported results last quarter.
- Cyber Cafes - Sify has about 3400 Internet cafes all over India
(34 of these Cyber Cafes are company owned and the rest are franchisee
owned). Most people in India cannot afford computers and their
primary way of accessing the internet is through Cyber Cafes.
iWay also offers the following,
- VOIP - Sify iWay's offer cheap rates to call internationally
and domestically.
- Internet training classes
- E-Ticketing, travel services and other eCommerce
- GameDromes - Sify Gamedromes are specialized Internet gaming
cafes. Gaming is still in its infancy in India, but like everything
else, is growing at a tremendous rate.
- MMORPG Gaming - Sify has teamed up with a South Korean company
to customize its MMORPG game for Indian tastes. This game was
recently launched so it is hard to measure its success.
- Broadband - Sify has about 191,000 broadband cable subscribers.
Sify is the third largest ISP overall and the biggest private
player. In the recent quarterly earnings conference call they
stated that they plan to have 350,000 subscribers by the end of
this year.
- Enterprise Services - Enterprise services provides the biggest
chunk of revenues for Sify.
- VPN Services
- Hosting Services
- Application Services.
- Global Infrastructure Management Services (Huge potential
here)
Competitors:
Portals: Rediff.com (REDF), IndiaTimes.com
(Private), Yahoo (YHOO), Google (GOOG) and MSN
(MSFT).
ISP: VSNL (VSL) and MTNL (MTE) and other local Indian
outfits.
Sify also has several local competitors for its other business
units.
The Good:
- The new CEO, Raju Vegesna, has stated that focusing internationally
is their number one priority.
- Sify is focusing on content for its portal since it's very hard
for Indian portals to compete with Yahoo and Google over services
such as Email and Instant Messenger. This is the right strategy.
- The new local portals for Indian cities.
- Infrastructure Outsourcing - Sify won 2 US customers in Q4 that
will generate revenues of $2 million each year for the next 5
years.
- Gaming - Still very early in India but a huge market.
- Online Travel - Another growing market but a lot of competition.
Sify will have to leverage its portals and cyber cafes to promote
the travel site.
- Cyber Cafes - Lots and lots of potential here.
- Potential buyout target - I have written about this in detail
here.
The Bad:
- Sify faces major competition in pretty much every field.
- Sify has failed to take advantage of the mobile growth in India.
- The stock is relatively unknown when compared to other Indian
stocks even though it was the second Indian company to list on
NASDAQ.
- Competition and margins are tough in the ISP business.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
3.22 |
Cash |
$63.456 Million |
| P/E |
N/A |
Long Term Debt |
$0.057 Million |
Every month we will add the two featured stocks into a model portfolio
started with a cash position of $100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep
calculations simple, trading costs and regular dividends are not
included. Prices reflect the closing price as of the last trading
day of the previous month (July 31, 2006 for the August 2006 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - August 1, 2006
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| STP |
400@25.93/share |
$10,372 |
$10,372 |
$0 |
0% |
| SIFY |
1000@7.92/share |
$7,920 |
$7,920 |
$0 |
0% |
| PG |
180@55.60/share |
$10,008 |
$10,116 |
$108 |
1.08% |
| INTC |
550@19.00/share |
$10,450 |
$9,900 |
-$550 |
-5.26% |
| LOGI |
240@40.77/share |
$9,785 |
$9,758 |
-$27 |
-0.27% |
| INFY |
150@70.60/share |
$10,590 |
$12,327 |
$1,737 |
16.4% |
| ETN |
140@76.65/share |
$10,731 |
$8,974 |
-$1,757 |
-16.37% |
| RCMT |
1600@6.48/share |
$10,368 |
$8,110 |
-$2,258 |
-21.77% |
| SWY |
300@25.12/share |
$7,536 |
$8,424 |
$888 |
11.78% |
| PHG |
300@32.52/share |
$9,756 |
$9,879 |
$123 |
1.26% |
| JNJ |
200@57.65/share |
$11,530 |
$12,510 |
$980 |
8.5% |
| LNUX |
2000@1.83/share |
$3,360 |
$7,940 |
$4,280 |
116.94% |
| MED |
500@5.39/share |
$2,695 |
$8,285 |
$5,590 |
207.42% |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$14,202 |
$3,456 |
32.16% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$11,910 |
$1,764 |
17.39% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$3,196 |
-$6,358 |
-66.55% |
| Cash |
|
|
$3,694 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$157,517 |
$57,517 |
57.52% |
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Royal Philips
(PHG), Nokia (NOK),
Medifast (MED), Tata
Motors (TTM), RCM
Technologies (RCMT),
Logitech (LOGI),
Intel (INTC), VA
Software (LNUX),
Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
and Sify Ltd (SIFY).
|