SINLetter - December 2005
Welcome to the fifth edition of the
Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter
that highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of
this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research
and basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
For those of you who are reading this and are not already subscribed,
you can subscribe by going to www.sinletter.com/subscribe.aspx
and you will start receiving this newsletter from next month. I
have provided relevant links throughout this newsletter, but if you
have any questions or comments, feel free to write to me.
The SINLetter portfolio is up 9.81%
since its inception less than 4 months ago with a cash position
of $100,000. This compares with a gain of 1.14% for the Dow Jones
Industrial Average, 0.72% for the Nasdaq and 0.43% for the S&P
500 over the same time period. While I expected every single stock
in our model portfolio
to do well, I am surprised to see every stock in the green as of
market close on November 30, 2005. It looks like Wall Street's fear
about flash memory replacing hard drives in consumer devices like
the iPod has subsided a little. The hard drive maker, Seagate Technologies
(STX) which was featured
in last
month's SINLetter is showing impressive gains of 30.57%. Another
big gainer, ATI Technologies (ATYT), appreciated 25.36%
thanks to the release of its latest high-end graphics processor
X1800 XT (referred to by the folks at ATI as the fastest graphics
processor on the planet). The much awaited launch of the Microsoft
(MSFT) gaming console
XBOX 360 which uses an ATI graphics chip also helped prop by the
price of ATI.
In the past, we have featured Wipro
(WIT), an ADR (American
Depository Receipt) of an Indian technology company and in this
edition we are going to feature Tata Motors (TTM),
another ADR of an Indian company. If you are interested in researching other ADRs of Indian companies,
here is a list to help you get started.
| Company Name |
Symbol |
Price |
P/E** |
| Dr Reddy's Labs Ltd |
RDY |
$21.18 |
196.18 |
| HDFC Bank Ltd |
HDB |
$49.59 |
31.37 |
| ICICI Bank Ltd |
IBN |
$25.47 |
- |
| Infosys Technologies Ltd |
INFY |
$72.06 |
82.07 |
| Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd |
MTE |
$6.25 |
16.95 |
| Rediff.com |
REDF |
$16.92 |
-417.50 |
| Satyam Computer Services Ltd |
SAY |
$35.24 |
33.12 |
| Sify |
SIFY |
$7.17 |
-29.65 |
| Tata Motors |
TTM |
$11.94 |
21.66 |
| Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL) |
VSL |
$15.61 |
41.36 |
| Wipro |
WIT |
$11.00 |
40.07 |
** P/E represents trailing P/E obtained from Ameritrade as Yahoo
Finance is currently not displaying P/E information for a majority of these ADRs.
A silicon valley based investment
partnership called Infinity Capital Ventures decided to buy Satyam
Computer's (SAY)
31.61% stake in Sify (SIFY)
for $5.60 per share recently and
the stock appreciated almost 40% in less than two weeks. When I look at Rediff.com
(REDF) it reminds me very much
of Yahoo (YHOO). While Rediff.com
does look very richly valued, there still appears to be
potential upside to this stock as more and more of India's population comes online
and becomes comfortable with E-Commerce. VSNL (VSL)
and Sify (SIFY)
are internet service providers and are in some sense similar to
AOL and Comcast. After following VSNL since 2003, I missed an opportunity
to start a position in VSNL a little over a year ago when the stock was trading
at about $7 and sported a low P/E. It now trades for $15.61
and sports a P/E of 41.36. Dr Reddy's (RDY)
is a generic drug manufacturer
and while it has shown some recent gains, a friend who works in
the Biotech industry suggested staying away from Dr Reddy's.
Given the high exposure to technology
stocks in the SINLetter model portfolio, I have decided to continue
diversifying the model portfolio by adding another international
stock and a domestic weight management company.
Tata Motors (TTM)
The Story:
Tata Motors is a company that belongs
to the large Tata conglomerate which has a piece of almost every
pie in India.
Tata Motors originally built large trucks and buses in India
before branching out into making cars in the 1990s.
Tata Motors has been very successful in this endeavor and now ranks
as the second largest car manufacturer
behind Maruti Udyog (a joint venture between the government of
India and Suzuki Motors). Its strong lineup of cars
currently caters to the middle-class, luxury and commercial markets.
A large
number of factors have come together to make Tata Motors an interesting
investment for the long term.
- Thanks to a burgeoning economy, India now
has one of the fastest growing middle-classes. Tata Motors existing models
Indica and Indigo specifically target this market.
- India is one of the youngest nations in the world with two thirds of the
population below the age of 35.
- The present government is attempting to improve India's infrastructure
and new highways are being built to connect the largest metropolitan areas.
These factors have combined
to make the whole auto sector a high-growth area in India with almost 30% growth in
the passenger car segment. This explains why Ford Motors
(F), General Motors (GM),
Toyota Motors (TM), Honda Motors
(HMC) and Hyundai have entered
the Indian market over the last decade. What makes Tata Motors
stand out amongst this group is its current research to build a
people's car for 100,000 Rupees. This translates to roughly $2,200
and is a vision very similar to Henry Ford's vision of the Model
T almost a century ago. Tata Motors is currently testing this car
for safety as the car is made of non-conventional materials to keep costs low.
Revenue for 2004-2005 came in at $4.548 billion for
Tata Motors and net income came in at $304 million. With operating income of $430.8 million,
the operating margin works out to 9.4% which is quite impressive for an automaker.
Competitors:
The primary competitors of Tata Motors are Ashok Leyland in
the commercial heavy vehicle segment and Maruti Udyog in the passenger car segment. Hyundai is
also a strong competitor in the passenger car segment. Volvo has been increasing its investment
in the automotive sector in India and so have a wide range of other international companies
from Europe and America.
The Good:
- Attractive current valuation with a P/E
of 21.66 for a company that is experiencing high double-digit growth.
- A strong balance sheet with $1.5 billion in cash and long-term
investments versus $653 million in short-term and long-term debt.
- Tata Motors has been increasing exports and reported a jump of 121% in exports during
the quarter that ended on September 30, 2005 when compared to last year.
The Bad:
- Ford, Toyota and Honda are steadily gaining market share in the luxury passenger car segment as
they continue to develop cars that are suitable for the Indian market.
- The research and development of the inexpensive "peoples car" could impact profit
margins for many years to come. It is an admirable vision but remains a risky endeavor.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
- |
Cash |
$472.3 Million |
| P/E |
21.66 |
Long Term Debt |
$587.6 Million |
Medifast Inc (MED)
The Story:
Medifast is a company that sells various weight management and
health products. If reading the first sentence evoked feelings of
"weight management companies are a dime a dozen", then you are not alone. Many diet
and weight management fads come and go. The most notable recent example was the low-carbohydrate
Atkins diet that gained huge popularity and then vanished almost overnight. What warrants a closer
look at Medifast is the fact that research studies at the National Institute for Health and
Johns Hopkins University have shown the plan to be very effective as well as medically safe. Apart
from these studies I have personally noticed how effective their plans were because a number of
people I know were on the Medifast diet plan. You have probably often heard the saying that a
great company may not make a great investment. Let me now make the case for why Medifast looks like
a very interesting investment to me.
While Medifast appears richly valued with a
P/E of 42.11 and a Price/Sales ratio of 1.91, its
high P/E is easily justified once you look at its growth rate. According
to the latest earnings release the company grew revenues by 51% year-over-year and also raised its full
year guidance. Companies often achieve such high growth by sacrificing profits. However Medifast continues
to remain profitable over 24 consecutive quarters. Medifast is a small company with a market cap of just
$68.23 million and is still not on Wall Street's radar. Hence institutional ownership of this stock is just
3%. The million-dollar question regarding Medifast is whether it can grow fast enough to ever show up on
Wall Street's radar. If they can continue to maintain the excellent growth experienced over the last two
quarters, there is a good chance it will. To handle future growth, Medifast has already started implementing
an enterprise management solution.
Competitors:
Medifast's direct competitors are Slimfast (a division of Sara Lee),
Jenny Craig and Weight Watcher's International (WTW).
The Good:
- Attractive quarterly revenue growth of 51% year-over-year.
- A proven weight loss product that is backed by research at highly reputed institutions.
- Small company that has not yet been noticed by Wall Street.
The Bad:
- Medifast is a micro-cap stock and is thinly traded. Hence it can be susceptible to large price swings.
- Trouble converting high revenue growth into profits.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
1.91 |
Cash |
$4.3 Million |
| P/E |
22.04 |
Long Term Debt |
$4.3 Million |
Every month we will add the two stocks that are highlighted into
a model portfolio started with a cash position of $100,000 on August
2, 2005. To keep calculations simple, trading costs are not included.
Prices reflect the closing price as of the last day of the previous
month (November 30, 2005 for the December 2005 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - December 1, 2005
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$10,746 |
$0 |
0% |
| MED |
2000@5.39/share |
$10,780 |
$10,780 |
$0 |
0% |
| STX |
700@14.49/share |
$10,143 |
$13,244 |
$3,101 |
30.57% |
| ROST |
350@27.04/share |
$9,464 |
$9,625 |
$161 |
1.7% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$10,248 |
$102 |
1.01% |
| PEET |
300@30.61/share |
$9,183 |
$9,315 |
$132 |
1.44% |
| WIT |
1000@9.91/share* |
$9,910 |
$11,000 |
$1,090 |
11% |
| ORCC |
1000@9.59/share |
$9,590 |
$11,720 |
$2,130 |
22.21% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$9,996 |
$442 |
4.63% |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$13,088 |
$2,648 |
25.36% |
| Cash |
|
|
$44 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$109,806 |
$9,806 |
9.81% |
* Price and number of shares adjusted for Wipro to reflect split.
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Wipro (WIT),
Online Resources (ORCC),
Nokia (NOK), Medifast
(MED) and Seagate
Technologies (STX).
|