SINLetter - January 2006
Welcome to the sixth edition of the
Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter
that highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of
this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research
and basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
For those of you who are reading this and are not already subscribed,
you can subscribe by going to www.sinletter.com/subscribe.aspx
and you will start receiving this newsletter from next month. I
have provided relevant links throughout this newsletter, but if you
have any questions or comments, feel free to write to me.
Portfolio Performance:
Last month's featured stock, Tata
Motors (TTM) appreciated
20.35% in just one month helping the overall SINLetter portfolio
notch up gains of 13.92% since its inception in August 2005 with
a cash position of $100,000. This compares with a gain of 0.89%
for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.45% for the Nasdaq and 0.01%
for the S&P 500 over the same time period. Seagate Technologies
(STX), which was
featured in November
acquired
Maxtor Corp for $1.9 Billion in stock and continued its upward
trend. It remains the best performer of the SINLetter model portfolio
with gains of 37.96%.
Portfolio Readjustment:
With almost all the cash fully invested
in stocks, I am now presented with the difficult task of selling
some of our positions to finance the purchase of this month's featured
stocks. I continue to like every single stock in the model portfolio
but have decided to take some profits off the table by liquidating
half of our position in Seagate Technologies. I have also decided
to sell Ross Stores Inc (ROST)
and realize the 6.88% in gains since we added it to our model portfolio
in November. Ross expects same store sales growth of 1 to 2 percent
in December and 3 to 4 percent in January. The holiday season shopping
seemed to benefit most regular retailers and it does not look like
Ross benefited a whole lot more. The other disconcerting factor
about Ross is the $1 billion in inventory that it currently carries.
The proceeds of these two stocks will finance this month's featured
stocks, Pfizer and Ford.
Other Interesting Events:
Google (GOOG)
insiders continue unloading Google stock with founders Sergey Brin
and Lawrence Page unloading 400,000 and 135,000 shares respectively
in the first 20 days of December. This amounts to over $160 million
and $54 million each. (considering a low average price of $400/share).
It almost feels like the dot-com bubble all over again with a small
difference. Google actually has some pretty solid earnings. Whether
Google's future growth potential justifies a current P/E
of 92.22 and P/S of 23.65 is the question of the century. Anyone
who went short on Google probably lost his or her shirt, but buying
some put options on Google at this time sounds like a good idea.
The downside is limited to the cost of the options, but if Google
were to display even the slightest sign of stumbling then the upside
could potentially be tremendous.
Anyone who read the
September and
October
SINLetters will realize that I normally discourage the use
of options or short selling of stocks except as a hedge for a long
portfolio. The recent inversion of the yield curve where
short term bonds start yielding more than long term bonds (imagine
getting a better interest rate on a 1 year CD when compared to a
5 year CD) spooked Wall Street. The reason Wall Street was so unhappy
was on account of the fact that the last six times the yield curve inversed, the economy
went into a recession. This is precisely where a hedge in the form
of put options, short selling of stocks or even buying gold can
be useful if most of your portfolio is long.
Dogs of the Dow Theory:
This month's featured stocks are based
on the "Dogs of the Dow theory" but with a small difference.
According to the Dogs of the Dow theory if you were to pick 10 stocks
with the highest dividend yields from the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJI) at the beginning of the year and hold them until the end of
the year, your average returns over a period of time should be higher
than the returns of the entire Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI).
This proven theory has strong parallels with value investing principles
and could be considered a value investing approach with all the
guesswork taken out of it. The DJI consists of 30 of the largest
and most widely held public companies and you can view the entire
DJI list here. Based on the definition of the Dogs of the Dow
theory, the list of 2006 dogs is given below.
2006 Dogs of the Dow
| Company Name |
Symbol |
Price* |
Dividend Yield |
P/E |
P/S |
| General Motors |
GM |
$19.42 |
10.30% |
N/A |
0.06 |
| AT&T |
T |
$24.49 |
5.40% |
21.19 |
1.96 |
| Verizon |
VZ |
$30.12 |
5.30% |
9.61 |
1.13 |
| Merck |
MRK |
$31.81 |
4.80% |
15.22 |
3.22 |
| Altria |
MO |
$74.72 |
4.30% |
15.42 |
2.32 |
| Pfizer |
PFE |
$23.32 |
4.00% |
21.26 |
3.28 |
| Citigroup |
C |
$48.53 |
3.60% |
11.01 |
2.99 |
| DuPont |
DD |
$42.50 |
3.50% |
19.66 |
1.40 |
| JP Morgan Chase |
JPM |
$39.69 |
3.40% |
19.07 |
2.77 |
| General Electric |
GE |
$35.05 |
2.80% |
19.69 |
2.24 |
* Price as of market close on Dec 30th, 2005
The reasons I chose Pfizer from this list and also picked Ford as an
alternative to General Motors are explained in detail below.
Pfizer (PFE)
The Story:
Pfizer is the biggest pharmaceutical
company in the United States with a market cap of $171.90 billion
and annual revenue of $52.5 billion. Apart from its well known blockbuster
drugs like Celebrex, Lipitor, Viagra and Zoloft that treat everything
from arthritis to depression, Pfizer also has a thriving consumer
health care division that makes products like Listerine, Lubriderm,
Neosporin and Visine. The company was founded in 1849 and has grown
through innovation and acquisitions. The most recent innovative
product that comes to mind is Listerine PocketPaks, which were so
successful that it spurred a plethora of copycat products. However
the heart of Pfizer remains the multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical
drugs.
Pfizer's performance in 2005 was dismal with the stock falling
almost 12%. This was after a 11% rebound in Pfizer's stock in December
based on an announcement by the company that it plans to raise its
dividend by 26%. This dividend raise would put Pfizer's dividend
yield at about 5%, making it the fourth highest yielding dog of
the Dow. The reason for Pfizer's dismal performance in 2005 was
attributed to expiring patents for many of its blockbuster drugs,
potential lawsuits similar to the ones Merck (MRK)
is currently facing for its arthritis drug Vioxx and increased competition
from both generics and biotechs.
This brings us to the question of
why I am featuring this stock. Apart from the proven track record
of the "Dogs of the Dow theory", the raising of the dividend
signaled how the company perceives its financial strength. A glance
at the balance sheet from the most recent quarter confirms this
fact as Pfizer currently has $16.78 billion in cash and investments
when compared to $12.143 billion in short-term and long-term debt.
Apart from its financial strength, Pfizer is also widely considered
to have one of the strongest pipeline of drugs amongst other pharmaceutical
companies. There is also the new government medicare prescription
coverage that kicks in this year, which would benefit Pfizer and
other "Big Pharma" companies. I feel that Wall Street
has as usual over-reacted to Pfizer's problems and the stock is
likely to rebound from these levels. Even if this were to take a
while, the 5% dividend payout sounds like adequate compensation
for my patience.
Competitors:
Pfizer faces competition from many
fronts. On the one hand there are other big pharmaceutical companies
like Merck (MRK),
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
and Novartis (NVS).
Then there are the biotech's like Genentech (DNA)
and Amgen (AMGN)
who have taken a totally different approach to making drugs and
have been highly successful. Finally there are the generic drug
companies like Israel's Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA),
India's Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY)
and Mylan Laboratories (MYL)
who constantly challenge "Big Pharma's" patents.
The Good:
- Attractive current valuation with a P/E
of 21.26 for a company that expects double-digit growth in 2006
and pays a dividend of 5%.
- A strong balance sheet with $16.78 billion in cash, short-term and long-term investments when compared
to $12.143 billion in short-term and long-term debt.
- The new medicare prescription drug benefit could be positive for Pfizer.
The Bad:
- There hasn't been a significant increase in R&D expenditure. Pfizer spent $8 billion in R&D in 2005,
compared with $7.7 billion in 2004.
- Potential lawsuits similar to those faced by Merck for its arthritis drug Vioxx.
- Intense competition from biotechs and generic drug companies.
- Looming patent expirations for some of the best selling Pfizer drugs and patent challenges by
generic drug companies.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
3.28 |
Cash |
$13.39 Billion |
| P/E |
21.26 |
Long Term Debt |
$12.14 Billion |
Ford Motor
(F)
The Story:
Recommending Ford at this point is
very unpopular, but from a contrarian or value standpoint, Ford
could reward investors who are willing to go against the grain.
Ford and General Motors are losing market share and face many other
problems such as rising healthcare costs but with an extremely low
P/S of 0.08 and current P/E of 7.52, Ford looks heavily undervalued.
An investment in Ford at these levels reminds me of a trade described
by the investment guru Peter
Lynch in his book
One Up On Wall Street. In the 1980's when Chrysler was in a
lot of trouble and widely expected to go bankrupt, Lynch picked
up Chrysler stock and made over 300% on his investment. I could
be wrong about Ford and investing in Ford at this time does involve
considerable risk but it is hard to discount the following positive
things that Ford has going for it.
- Ford currently has $36.8 billion in cash and short-term investments
on its balance sheet. With that much cash on hand, the likelihood
of Ford going bankrupt looks slim to me. The long-term debt is
$141.74 billion, but a large portion of that is debt on account
of the car loans given out by the finance arm of Ford.
- Ford owns Jaguar, Land Rover, Aston Martin and Volvo. While
the Jaguar unit of Ford has not performed well in recent years,
each of these impressive brands represents solid value. Last week
Ford decided to inject $2.1 Billion into its troubled Jaguar unit.
Ford also owns Mercury, and a considerable stake in Mazda.
- Ford recently sold its stake in Hertz for $5.6 billion. I was
unaware that Ford owned a big stake in Hertz Car Rentals but was
pleased to hear of the sale as it infuses a lot of cash into Ford
and at the same time gets rid of a car rental company that seems
to consistently charge almost twice the rate of its competitors.
- Unlike GM and a host of other automakers that did not see the
importance of adding hybrid engines to their lineup of cars, Ford
quickly followed in the footsteps of Toyota and Honda to introduce
a hybrid version of its popular small Escape SUV. The New York
yellow taxi company has already started using some
hybrid Escapes and plans to convert a large part of its fleet
to hybrid Escape SUVs. New York city has offered significant price breaks on taxi medallions
(which usually cost upwards of $500,000) for
cabbies who decide to use a hybrid.
- Ford has a considerable presence internationally and Ford Europe
is profitable. After lukewarm response to the Ford Escort in India,
Ford introduced its new model called the Ford Ikon, which was
very well received in India. Ford is likely to continue gaining
market share in the luxury car segment in India. Volvo (a unit
of Ford) is also expanding into trucks in India.
- The Ford Mustang remains a very popular car in its category
and Ford had to increase production to over 190,000 units to meet
the high demand for the newly redesigned Mustang.
While you wait for Ford to recover
from these lows, you can continue collecting the dividend, which
is currently 5.1%. If for some reason Ford decides to eliminate
the dividend or even reduce it, all bets are off. The chances of
this happening are very low as it would lead to an exodus of value
and income oriented investors. To recognize the risks presented
by Ford, I have only invested the proceeds from selling half of
Seagate Technologies.
Competitors:
As almost everyone is aware, Ford's competitors include General Motors
(GM), DaimlerChrysler
(DCX), Toyota Motors
(TM), Honda Motors
(HMC) and Nissan Motors
(NSANY).
The Good:
- Very attractive current valuation with a low P/S of 0.08 and P/E of 7.52.
- A high dividend yield of 5.1%.
- Profitable international operations and certain best selling domestic cars like the Ford Mustang.
- Ford reached a new deal with the United Auto Workers union that will allow it to save $650 million annually.
- The only American auto company with an established hybrid strategy.
The Bad:
- A heavy pension burden combined with rising healthcare costs.
- Loss of market share to Toyota and Honda.
- Lower profits on account of slowdown of sales of highly profitable light trucks and SUVs.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
0.08 |
Cash |
$17.00 Billion |
| P/E |
7.52 |
Long Term Debt |
$141.74 Billion |
Every month we will add the two featured stocks into a model portfolio
started with a cash position of $100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep
calculations simple, trading costs are not included. Prices reflect
the closing price as of the last trading day of the previous month
(December 30, 2005 for the January 2006 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - January 1, 2006
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| PFE |
400@23.32/share |
$9,328 |
$9,328 |
$0 |
0% |
| F |
900@7.72/share |
$6,948 |
$6,948 |
$0 |
0% |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$12,933 |
$2,187 |
20.35% |
| MED |
2000@5.39/share |
$10,780 |
$10,480 |
-$300 |
-2.78% |
| STX |
350@14.49/share |
$5,071.5 |
$6,996.5 |
$1,925 |
37.96% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$10,980 |
$834 |
8.22% |
| PEET |
300@30.61/share |
$9,183 |
$9,105 |
-$78 |
-0.85% |
| WIT |
1000@9.91/share |
$9,910 |
$11,950 |
$2,040 |
20.59% |
| ORCC |
1000@9.59/share |
$9,590 |
$11,050 |
$1,460 |
15.22% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$9,673 |
$119 |
1.25% |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$13,592 |
$3,152 |
30.19% |
| Cash |
|
|
$879.5 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$113,915 |
$13,915 |
13.92% |
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Wipro (WIT),
Online Resources (ORCC),
Nokia (NOK), Medifast
(MED), Tata Motors
(TTM), Ford (F),
Pfizer (PFE)
and Seagate Technologies (STX).
|