SINLetter - May 2006
Welcome to the tenth edition of the
Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter
that highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of
this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research
and basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
For those of you who are reading this and are not already subscribed,
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have provided relevant links throughout this newsletter, but if
you have any questions or comments, feel free to write to me.
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font and changing the font type. We did add a few additional features
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Portfolio Performance:
VA Software (LNUX)
managed to register some additional gains and remains the top performer
in the SINLetter model portfolio with gains of 187.43%. Medifast
(MED)
is the second stock in the SINLetter model portfolio that has
achieved a return of more than 100% with gains of 119.29%, helping
the overall model portfolio register gains of 62.94% since
its inception in August 2005. This compares with a gain of 7%
for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 5.79% for the Nasdaq and 6.09%
for the S&P 500 over the same time period.
NutriSystem (NTRI),
a competitor of Medifast that was mentioned
in the March
2006 edition of SINLetter reported excellent earnings yet again
and the stock rose $17.31 or 34.14% in a single day. This had a
ripple effect causing Medifast to register gains of 12.92% on the
same day as well. With expectations riding this high, there is a good chance
that Medifast could see a drop in its stock price when it releases
its next quarterly results on May 15th. I still like the
long-term prospects of Medifast and plan to continue holding the
stock both in the SINLetter model portfolio and my personal portfolio.
Royal Philips (PHG)
released "exceptionally strong" first quarter
2006 results led by revenue gains in the lighting and consumer electronics
divisions, leading an analyst to remark "I think in the last
six or seven years covering Philips, I’ve never seen a year over
year growth rate of that strength across the business." In
case you do not want to listen to the entire conference call, I
have posted
highlights from the conference call on my blog. The stock jumped
up 4.11% the day after the results were released and is now registering
gains of 6.03% since it was added to the SINLetter model portfolio
in March.
Nokia (NOK)
had another great quarter with profits rising 21% to 1.05 billion
euros as sales jumped 29% to 9.5 billion euros. Mobile phone sales
rose 30% to 5.87 billion euros with Nokia selling 75.1 million mobile
phones and other devices in the quarter. One of the only negative
things about this quarter was a drop in operating margins to 14.4%
from 15.1% a year ago. I am pleased with the 34% return from Nokia
since October 2005 and expect additional price appreciation based
on continued
demand from China, India and Africa. Both the stocks featured
last month, RCM Technologies (RCMT)
and Safeway (SWY)
managed to eke out tiny gains in April. The US employment numbers
for the first quarter of 2006 were strong with a higher than expected
211,000 non-farm new jobs added in March. RCM Technologies reports
quarterly results on May 4th and based on these employment numbers
and the upbeat comments made by management in their last conference
call, I expect the results to be good.
Portfolio Readjustment:
Unitedhealth Group (UNH)
has seen a lot of downward pressure recently thanks to
continued fallout from the stock options
backdating controversy. Unitedhealth exceeded analyst expectations when it reported first quarter 2006 results.
Earnings came in at 68 cents per share, 3 cents above expectations and up 24% when compared to the same quarter
last year. However the earnings guidance issued by the company for 2007 came in below analyst expectations and I have
decided to sell Unitedhealth Group from our model portfolio.
To finance this month's purchases
I am going to take some additional profits in VA Software (LNUX)
by selling another 2,000 shares, which represents 1/3 of our original
purchase of 6,000 shares. Following the $580 million purchase of
MySpace.com
by media mogul Rupert Murdoch's News Corp, another new dot com established
in 2004 by a Harvard drop out called Facebook.com
received a valuation
of $550 million. A recent article in Fortune magazine titled The
Boom is Back heralds a new internet boom and VA Software is
likely to benefit from this trend thanks to Slashdot.org. Hence
I am going to hold on to the remaining 2,000 shares of VA Software
in the model portfolio and also in my personal portfolios.
I am also selling our stake in Seagate
Technologies (STX)
and recognizing the 83.3% gain since we added it to your portfolio
six months ago. The valuation of Seagate still looks attractive
with a current Price/Earnings ratio of 12.18, a forward Price/Earnings
of 11.96 and a Price/Sales ratio of 1.43. Seagate's close competitor
Western Digital (WDC)
reported very strong quarterly earnings that were up 45%. Seagate
also recently released a giant
750 GB hard drive that uses the new perpendicular recording
technology to store more data in less space. While both these events
combined with the current valuation are positive, I expect pressure
on Seagate's earnings in the latter part of this year as Seagate
integrates its acquisition of Maxtor.
Other Interesting Events:
As some of you are aware, I usually
write a blog entry titled "Stocks That Almost Made the
Cut" after the release of each SINLetter. The purpose
of these blog entries is to discuss some of the stocks that I found
interesting and considered for SINLetter but did not feature in
the current edition. I am now strongly considering renaming these
blog entries "Stocks That Should Have Made the Cut".
Why am I proposing this change in title? Two stocks, Netscout Systems
(NTCT)
and Dyadic International (DIL)
that I strongly considered featuring in March
and April,
are up a very respectable 42.01% and 33.55% respectively since they
were considered. I found both these companies very interesting but
before I could complete my research and feature them on SINLetter,
they decided to take an energetic uphill sprint. Dyadic International
(DIL)
may still have additional upside left thanks to the high interest
in alternative energy and ethanol, but remains a speculative investment.
Research In Motion (RIMM),
the maker of the famous BlackBerry
wireless email devices reported earnings on April 6th that failed
to meet analyst expectations and the stock dropped $4.60 or 5.45%
the following day. As mentioned in last month's SINLetter, I expected
RIMM to perform badly in the short-term and anyone who bought put
options in RIMM probably benefited from the 9.72% drop in April.
Suburban Propane (SPH), a stock with
a very high dividend yield of 8.3% was discussed briefly in the
October
2005 edition of SINLetter. I looked up the company again and
it looks like one of the few red flags I discussed in October regarding
the inability of the company to pass on high energy costs to customers
seems to be addressed. The stock dropped almost 20% after I discussed
some of the problems facing Suburban Propane but has since recovered
all those losses and the stock is now trending upwards. After the
release of strong quarterly results, UBS analyst Ronald Barone gave
the company a 5-star rating.
Microsoft (MSFT) shares tumbled $3.10
or more than 11% to $24.15 on Friday, April 28th as the company
outlined plans to increase spending in order to compete effectively
against rivals like Google. I should have seen this coming as I
have been hearing about increased hiring at Microsoft over the last
few weeks. This represents the biggest one-day drop in more than
five years and the stock established a new 52-week low. While this
plan is going to put pressure on earnings over the next few quarters,
it could be positive over the long-term if Microsoft can successfully
execute its goals. However that is a big if and it would
be wise not to start a new position in Microsoft during the next
few days. Five analysts downgraded the stock on Friday and
there is a good chance that institutions may continue dumping the
stock in the coming weeks.
In case you have not noticed, Gold
closed at $654.50 per ounce on Friday, up more
than 50% over the last year. Without digressing any further,
let me present this month's featured stocks.
Eaton Corp
(ETN)
The Story:
The world of commercial aircraft suppliers
is almost a duopoly with Boeing (BA)
and Airbus competing fiercely for orders. Looking at the state of
airline companies in the United States with United declaring bankruptcy
and even Jet Blue declaring a quarterly loss, one has to wonder
how good the demand for commercial aircraft is going to be in the
coming years. While the airline industry in the US is mature and
reeling under the effects of high oil prices, air travel in countries
like China and India is booming. Airlines from these countries and
other developing nations are placing a record
number of orders for new planes and this trend is likely to
continue for years to come. Boeing (BA)
has been very successful in wooing large orders over the last few
months thanks to the launch of the new 787 Dreamliner and you can
view an updated list of 2006 Boeing orders here.
The president of China on a recent visit to the United States decided
to visit the Boeing factory in Everett, Washington as China plans
to buy as many as 2,000 planes from Boeing over
the next 15 years.
Based on these orders, I started digging
for companies that supply aircraft parts to Boeing. The ideal scenario
would be to find a small public company that derives a large part
of its revenue through the sale of aircraft parts. This is referred
to by investors as a "pure play" company and holds the
prospects for excellent returns if the company has not already been
discovered. It would be even better if this company were to supply
aircraft parts to both Boeing and Airbus. Finding such a company
proved to be a daunting task because Boeing sources its parts from
several international suppliers that are not listed on the US stock
exchanges or from Boeing subsidiaries. It also appears that like
Walmart, Boeing puts pressure on its small suppliers to get the
best pricing and this affects their margins. After looking at dozens
of public companies, I finally decided on Eaton Corp as it is a
large company that supplies important aircraft parts to both Boeing
and Airbus and has an attractive current valuation. Eaton in partnership
with Hamilton Sundstrand won two contracts to supply electrical
contactors and hydraulic pumps for the Boeing 787.
With 59,000 employees and customers
in over 125 countries, Eaton is truly a diversified industrial
company. The four primary business divisions of Eaton include electrical,
automotive, fluid power and trucking. Ranked number 227 on the Fortune
500 list, Eaton had 2005 sales of $11.1 billion and reported profits
of $805 million, up 24.2% from a year earlier. Eaton recently released
first quarter 2006 results with both sales and net profits coming
in at 14% above the year ago period and 7 cents per share above
analyst expectations. Eaton also increased its full year
2006 forecast to a range of $5.90 to $6.20 per share.
From a valuation perspective, Eaton
looks very attractive with a P/E
of 14.19, a forward P/E
of 12.07 and a Price/Sales of 0.99. The 1.8% dividend yield is in
line with the average dividend yield of the S&P 500. The main
cause for concern with Eaton is its leveraged balance sheet which
carries $2.46 billion in short, current and long term debt when
compared to just $336 million in cash and short-term investments.
However Eaton is a profitable company generating a profit of $208
million on revenue of $3.01 billion in the first quarter of 2006.
A downturn in the economy or a recession is another key risk faced
by Eaton on account of the industrial nature of its business.
Eaton is just one example of this
long-term theme of increased activity in the aerospace sector and
there are many ways to benefit from this theme. Investors could
also invest in aluminum producing companies like Alcoa (AA)
or Alcan (AL),
invest in airline stocks in emerging countries (if they have access
to local markets or the ADRs are listed on the NYSE) or invest in
other companies in the aerospace sector. Some of these companies
are listed in the "competitors" section below.
Competitors:
Eaton Corp faces competition from
other diversified industrial conglomerates like Danaher (DHR),
United Technologies (UTX),
Emerson (EMR)
and Parker-Hannifin (PH).
I held a position in Danaher (DHR)
for a short period of time in 2001 and have often wished that I
had held on to the stock longer as it has appreciated more than
100% in the last five years. If you were to consider just the aerospace
division, competitors would include Moog Inc (MOG.A),
Woodward Governor Company (WGOV),
Astronics Corporation (ATRO) and Crane Co (CR).
The Good:
- Eaton sports an attractive valuation with a forward P/E
of 12.07 and a Price/Sales of 0.99.
- Eaton recently reported results that were better than analyst
estimates and also raised guidance for 2006.
- Eaton designed a hybrid
electric powertrain that is currently used in some FedEx delivery
trucks and could gain widespread adoption in the future.
The Bad:
- Eaton's automotive business could be impacted by eroding market
share at Ford and GM. However Eaton also counts many other automotive
companies amongst its customers and was recently recognized by
Honda as an "outstanding" supplier.
- The balance sheet has $2.46 billion in short, current and long
term debt.
- Inventory rose by 5.28% to $1.16 billion when compared to the
preceding quarter.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
0.99 |
Cash |
$110 Million |
| P/E |
14.19 |
Long Term Debt |
$1.83 Billion |
CMGI Inc (CMGI)
The Story:
Alternative energy stocks are all
the rage on Wall Street these days thanks to the rising price of
crude oil. Recent solar IPOs like California's SunPower (SPWR)
and China's Suntech Power Holdings (STP)
have seen their stocks soar up more than 50% and 70% respectively
since December 2005. As automobile manufacturers unveil plans to
produce vehicles that can run on E85, a mix of 85% ethanol and just
15% gas, ethanol producing companies like Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
and much larger rival Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
have seen a big boost in their stock prices. Investors have also
shown renewed interest in hydrogen fuel cell stocks like Hoku Scientific
(HOKU),
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP)
and the aptly named FuelCell Energy (FCEL).
While looking for alternative energy stocks that have not already
been chased to the moon, I came across a company called CMGI Inc
that could be an alternative play on alternative energy. I came
across CMGI while reading this
article by Mark Hulbert on MarketWatch.com
discussing how George Putnam, the editor of the investment newsletter
Turnaround Letter, finds CMGI interesting.
CMGI is a company that offers global
supply chain management solutions and marketing distribution services
through its subsidiaries ModusLink and SalesLink. CMGI also holds
a stake in various early-stage and mid-stage start-ups through its
venture capital arm @Ventures. Notable past investments of @Ventures
include GeoCities (acquired by Yahoo), eGroups (acquired by Yahoo)
and Half.com (acquired by eBay). Apart from the sizable cash position
of $159.70 million that CMGI holds and the $1.07 billion in revenue
that CMGI brought in last year, it was not very clear why the Turnaround
Letter would be excited about this company. There were quite a few
things about this company that did not appeal to me at first glance
and are probably keeping most investors away. Inventory has risen
consistently over the last few quarters, gross margins are very
low and the company posted a loss of $6.3 million last quarter.
The corporate structure is complex and visibility is reduced as
CMGI operates through various subsidiaries.
I decided to dig deeper into CMGI
to figure out if it was indeed a worthy investment or not. Looking
at the current
portfolio of companies that @Ventures has invested in brought
up something interesting. Advent
Solar is a @Ventures company that manufactures solar cell and
modules. The technology and patents that Advent Solar holds allow
it to manufacture solar cells using ultra-thin silicon wafers. As
most followers of the alternative energy sector are well aware,
silicon is in very
high demand these days and manufacturing processes that utilize
less silicon are becoming increasingly important in the solar energy
industry. Another interesting company in the @Ventures portfolio
is H2Gen Innovations,
a company that designs and manufactures on-site hydrogen generators.
Most companies in the hydrogen fuel cell space actually derive a
large part of their current revenue from hydrogen generators as
the prospect of strong revenue growth from fuel cells that power
automobiles is still a few years away. Hence CMGI through its stakes
in Advent Solar and H2Gen could be an alternative play on alternative
energy.
The most interesting part about CMGI
is however its stake in an e-learning company called WebCT
that was acquired by Blackboard (BBBB)
very recently for approximately $180 million. @Ventures owned a
13.5% stake in WebCT and hence it received approximately $21.2 million
when this acquisition closed in February. Most of this $21.2 million
is likely to drop straight down to the bottom line and could end
up boosting results when CMGI reports the next quarterly results.
The exciting investments of @Ventures combined with the steady revenue
stream from subsidiaries ModusLink and SalesLink have convinced
me that CMGI looks like an interesting short to intermediate term
investment.
Competitors:
It is hard to determine direct competitors for a company that has
a stake in such a diverse set of businesses. Idealabs with its portfolio
of companies could be considered a competitor of @Ventures. Internet Capital Group (ICGE)
with its portfolio of diverse companies is another close competitor of CMGI.
The Good:
- CMGI carries $190.93 million in cash, short-term and long-term
investments on its balance sheet when compared to just $36.53
million in long-term debt.
- The company is likely to report good results next quarter on
account of Blackboard's acquisition of WebCT.
- CMGI is also expanding its footprint in China and currently
has seven solution centers there.
- The venture capital arm of CMGI called @Ventures has made some
interesting investments in alternative energy companies.
The Bad:
- At a price of $1.44 per share, CMGI may be considered by some
as a "penny stock".
- If the price of the stock were to drop below $1 for 30 continuous
days, CMGI will be issued a delisting notice by Nasdaq.
- CMGI has a complex corporate structure with a stake in various
companies through its venture capital arm.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
0.62 |
Cash |
$159.70 Million |
| P/E |
45 |
Long Term Debt |
$36.53 Million |
Every month we will add the two featured stocks into a model portfolio
started with a cash position of $100,000 on August 2, 2005. To keep
calculations simple, trading costs are not included. Prices reflect
the closing price as of the last trading day of the previous month
(April 30, 2006 for the May 2006 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - May 1, 2006
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| ETN |
140@76.65/share |
$10,731 |
$10,731 |
$0 |
0 |
| CMGI |
7000@1.44/share |
$10,080 |
$10,080 |
$0 |
0 |
| RCMT |
1600@6.48/share |
$10,368 |
$10,752 |
$384 |
3.7% |
| SWY |
300@25.12/share |
$7,536 |
$7,536 |
$3 |
0.04% |
| PHG |
300@32.52/share |
$9,756 |
$10,344 |
$558 |
6.03% |
| JNJ |
200@57.65/share |
$11,530 |
$11,722 |
$192 |
1.67% |
| LNUX |
2000@1.83/share |
$3,360 |
$10,520 |
$7,160 |
187.43% |
| MED
|
2000@5.39/share |
$10,780 |
$23,640 |
$12,860 |
119.29% |
| TTM |
900@11.94/share |
$10,746 |
$18,657 |
$7,911 |
73.62% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$13,596 |
$3,450 |
34% |
| WIT |
500@9.91/share |
$4,955 |
$7,145 |
$2,190 |
44.2% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$10,336 |
$782 |
8.19% |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$12,416 |
$1,976 |
18.93% |
| Cash |
|
|
$5,458 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$162,936 |
$62,936 |
62.94% |
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Wipro (WIT),
Royal Philips (PHG),
Nokia (NOK), Medifast
(MED), Tata Motors
(TTM), RCM Technologies
(RCMT), CMGI
(CMGI),
Seagate Technologies (STX)
and VA Software (LNUX).
|