SINLetter - October 2005
Welcome to the third edition of the
Suria Investment Newsletter (SINLetter), a free monthly newsletter
that highlights two publicly traded companies. The objective of
this newsletter is to provide you with unbiased initial research
and basic facts about individual stocks so that you can then research
them further before deciding to add them to your portfolio or not.
For those of you who are reading this and are not already subscribed,
you can subscribe by going to www.sinletter.com/subscribe.aspx
and you will start receiving this newsletter from next month. I
have provided relevant links throughout this newsletter but if you
have any questions, feel free to write to me.
For additional resources or to view previous editions, please visit
the archives section of the SINLetter website at
www.sinletter.com.
As mentioned in last month's SINLetter,
real estate stocks (mostly new home builders) continued their downward
trend. We identified St Joe's (JOE)
as one of the most overvalued stocks in this sector and it took
one of the worst beatings falling from $75.21 to $62.45 in a month.
Anyone who bought either put
options or started a short
position in St Joe's probably made a tidy sum of money. I would
like to reiterate once again that I normally discourage the use
of options or short selling of stocks. However these strategies
can sometimes prove to be a useful hedge for a long portfolio, especially
when the bursting of a bubble looks imminent.
Three out of the four our stocks in
our model portfolio
are showing gains with Online Resources (ORCC)
up more than 10% since we added it to our portfolio in September.
I continue to hold all four stocks in my personal portfolio as well.
Since our model portfolio is heavily weighted towards technology,
I decided to look for stocks from other sectors to feature in this
month's SINLetter.
While screening the vast universe
of stocks, I came across an interesting company called Suburban
Propane (SPH) which
has an impressive dividend yield of 8.3%. If you haven't already
figured out what this company does, Suburban Propane provides propane
to customers in rural communities. It is currently trading at $28.69
and according to morningstar.com
the fair value estimate for this stock is $37 per share. Suburban
Propane sports a forward looking P/E
of 14.87 and a Price/Sales ratio of just 0.56. On the surface it
appears to be a no-brainer stock to add to our portfolio but digging
deeper brought up a few red flags. The company is carrying over
$500 million dollars in long-term debt, has very little cash on
hand and is currently hurting from high energy prices as it is not
able to pass all of the increased cost to its customers. The balance
sheet also appears muddled to me. On the positive side, Suburban
Propane has low customer attrition rates and it does not appear
to be at risk of defaulting on its loans anytime soon. If the dividend
yield looks very attractive to you, I would suggest doing further
research on Suburban Propane before adding it to your portfolio.
For right now, I will continue watching Suburban Propane without
adding it to our model portfolio. Without digressing further, lets
explore the two stocks I have highlighted in this edition.
Peet's Coffee
(PEET)
The Story:
Peet's Coffee was founded in Berkeley,
California in 1966 and has come a long way since then. You can buy
its coffee beans from specialty stores and certain mainstream retailers
or you can also try out their coffee, lattes and large assortment
of over 30 kinds of teas in one of their stores. In fact I am hooked
to their "Assam Golden Tip" tea and from the long lines
I have observed at some of their stores, it looks like a large number
of other customers are also hooked. In an industry that appears
saturated and with a Starbucks on almost every block, you have to
wonder how Peet's Coffee can survive and grow. Quality and freshness
along with steady, measured growth seems to be the key to Peet's.
Peet's is currently growing at a rate of over 20% a year and had
plans to open 20 new stores in 2005. If you visit their store locations
page here,
you will notice that apart from the West coast, they
have very few stores in other regions and there is tremendous room
for growth.
Peet's Coffee has a current P/E
of 42.45 and a Price/Sales ratio of 2.62. At first look it does
look overvalued but given its double-digit growth, profit margins
that match Starbucks and a strong balance sheet with no debt, the
high P/E appears to be justified. Also the recent drop in coffee
futures could bode well for Peet's. The main risk to owning Peet's
stock is its high valuation which reflects the high expectations
that Wall Street has for this company.
About three years ago when Starbucks
(SBUX) was at about
$25 per share, you could find a Starbucks at almost every corner.
This made me wonder how much higher the stock could go as it looked
like Starbucks had already exhausted its growth prospects. Starbucks
then decided to go international, acquire competitors like Seattle's
Best and expand into other areas such as music. The stock has never
looked back and is currently trading at $50.10 per share. I do not
want to make the same mistake with Peet's. I started tracking Peet's
at $27 a share over 4 months ago and watched it go all the way up
to $36.80 in under two months. It has retracted to $30.61 now, providing
a good opportunity to start a long position or to add to an existing
position.
Competitors:
Peet's closest public competitors
are Starbucks (SBUX) and Diedrich Coffee Inc
(DDRX). Apart from these
large competitors, Peet's also faces competition from local coffee shops
and specialty coffee retailers.
The Good:
- A strong balance sheet with $9.7 million in cash and no debt
- A high growth rate of over 20% year-over-year.
- With a little over 100 stores and a variety of excellent products,
Peet's still has tremendous room for growth.
The Bad:
- Strong competition from Starbucks, Diedrich Coffee and other
local coffee shops.
- If Wall Street's expectation of continued high growth is not
met, the stock could drop precipitously.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
2.62 |
Cash |
$9.7 Million |
| P/E |
42.45 |
Long Term Debt |
- |
Nokia (NOK)
The Story:
Almost all of us have at some point
either owned or wanted to own one of those candy bar shaped phones
that Nokia is well known for. We have also seen Nokia's market share
erode to Samsung and more recently to Research In Motion (RIMM)
the maker of the famous Blackberry device and Motorola (MOT)
after its launch of the sleek Razr phone.
While some people consider the mobile
growth story a thing of the past, recent camera phones (Samsung
created a 6 megapixel camera phone a few months ago) and phones
that can play MP3s has sparked growth in the segment again. But
that is only half the story. There is red-hot demand for mobile
phones in Africa, China and India. Nokia's recent press release
showing improved growth and margins seems to reaffirm that Nokia
is benefiting from this trend. Apart from cell phones, Nokia has
diversified into computer networking (among many other areas)
and as mentioned in the first
edition of SINLetter stands to benefit from emerging technologies
like WIMAX.
Motorola recently released its Itunes
enabled phone called Rokr to lukewarm response. Nokia will soon
be releasing the Nokia N91
which has the capacity
to store 3000 songs and also has various other applications in a very
small form factor. If the N91 does not look like a winner to you,
the whopping $16 billion in cash and short-term investments that Nokia
has on its balance sheet combined with a dividend yield of 2.7% were compelling
enough for me to start a position in Nokia for my personal portfolio.
Nokia's stock is currently almost at the same level it was three years ago
while the Dow and Nasdaq have both made a good comeback in the same period.
I feel that Nokia is ready to break out and could be great long-term
investment.
Competitors:
Samsung continues to create amazing
products and recently even surpassed Sony (SNE)
in revenue (2004 revenue for Samsung was $71.6 billion when compared
to Sony's $66.6 billion). Apart from Samsung, Nokia also faces stiff
competition from Palm (the makers of the Treo line of phones), Research
In Motion (RIMM),
Ericsson (ERICY)
and Motorola (MOT).
As more and more cell phones are beginning to offer music playing
capabilities, sales of the popular IPods by Apple could erode and
hence there is speculation that Apple Computers (AAPL)
may also start making cell phones.
The Good:
- Strong balance sheet with $16 billion in cash and less than
$500 million of short-term debt.
- Recent improvement in both sales and profit margins.
- Diversification into emerging technologies like WIMAX.
The Bad:
- Strong competition from Samsung, Palm, Research In Motion and
Motorola.
- Possibility of Apple (AAPL)
making cell phones.
The Numbers:
| P/S |
1.88 |
Cash |
$16 Billion |
| P/E |
17.61 |
Long Term Debt |
- |
Every month we will add the two stocks that are highlighted into
a model portfolio started with a cash position of $100,000 on August
2, 2005. To keep calculations simple, trading costs are not included.
Prices reflect the closing price as of the last day of the previous
month (September 30, 2005 for the October 2005 newsletter).
Model Portfolio - October 1, 2005
| Stock/Cash |
Number of Shares |
Cost |
Current Value |
Difference($) |
Difference(%) |
| PEET |
300@30.61/share |
$9,183 |
$9,183 |
$0 |
0% |
| NOK |
600@16.91/share |
$10,146 |
$10,146 |
$0 |
0% |
| WIT |
1000@9.91/share* |
$9,910 |
$10,360 |
$450 |
4.54% |
| ORCC |
1000@9.59/share |
$9,590 |
$10,580 |
$990 |
10.32% |
| AIRN |
1700@5.62/share |
$9,554 |
$8,551 |
-$1,003 |
-10.5% |
| ATYT |
800@13.05/share |
$10,440 |
$11,152 |
$712 |
6.82% |
| Cash |
|
|
$41,177 |
|
|
| Total |
|
|
$101,149 |
$1,149 |
1.15% |
* Price and number of shares adjusted for Wipro to reflect split.
Voluntary Disclosure: I currently own shares of Airspan Networks
(AIRN), ATI Technologies
(ATYT), Wipro (WIT),
Online Resources (ORCC)
and Nokia (NOK).
|