| 1 2 3 ... |
| Rank | Username | ? | Stock | Quote* | Contest Price | Instrument | Diff(%) | Date Added |
|
1
|
biiwii.com
|
+
|
PAL
|
$5.46
|
$3.88
|
Long Stock
|
40.72%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting North American Palladium: |
|
|
|
+
|
AMZN
|
$71.3
|
$94.7
|
Short Stock
|
24.71%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting AMAZON.COM INC: Valuation & chart. |
|
|
|
+
|
GSS
|
$3.42
|
$3.45
|
Long Stock
|
-0.87%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting GOLDEN STAR RES L: Improving fundamentals and bullish chart (to a bottom feeder like myself). |
| Total | 21.52% | |
|
2
|
Accrued Interest
|
+
|
WM
|
$10.3
|
$13.61
|
Short Stock
|
24.32%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting WASHINGTON MUTUAL: WaMu has too much in Option ARMs, which will eventually either drive them into bankruptcy or else cause them to merge at a depressed price. |
|
|
|
+
|
AGO
|
$23.74
|
$26.5
|
Long Stock
|
-10.42%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting ASSURED GUARANTY: Assured Guaranty will emerge as one of 3 stong players in the municipal insurance business. |
|
|
|
+
|
MER
|
$40.74
|
$53.71
|
Long Stock
|
-24.15%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting ML CO CMN STK: MER has already taken the big bath. New CEO's are not incented to understate losses incurred in former regimes. WIth new capital already contributed, MER's core earnings power will drive the stock higher. |
| Total | -3.42% | |
|
3
|
Teenvestor
|
+
|
KSS
|
$42.89
|
$44.72
|
Short Stock
|
4.09%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting KOHLS CP: Profit is already falling just went to one of their stores didn't look like they sold anything between thanksgiving and Christmas, clothes were piled on the floor and on top was the worst retailer I've been to in quite a while. |
|
|
|
+
|
SHLD
|
$102.09
|
$105.28
|
Long Stock
|
-3.03%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting SEARS HLDGS CORP: Below liquidation, run by Lampert |
|
|
|
+
|
KSWS
|
$15.82
|
$18.22
|
Long Stock
|
-13.17%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting K SWISS INC CL A: Trading way too low huge amount of cash and able managers to turn around domestic business. |
| Total | -4.04% | |
|
4
|
The Beta Brief
|
+
|
FXP
|
$93.29
|
$80.46
|
Long Stock
|
15.95%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting PROSHARES ULTRASH: Similar to the above, I think about short-term and long-term investing a bit differently. Longer term, I like China but the problem is that the ETFs and CEFs in the market today are so different in terms of underlying index or strategy that the "problem" might actually be an interesting opportunity to extract alpha.
2008 looks to be the year of the US election and the Beijing Olympics. Think about other Asian emerging countries that hosted an Olympics like Japan (1964) and South Korea (1988) and think about their expansion during the 20 years or so thereafter and you wonder what China can accomplish. They do look like the ones to take over the USSR/Russia as the 2nd superpower. Think about their competition with the US (both have a seat on the US security council, both are involved in space exploration, both are competing for the planet's limited resources). The question is how fast can things change. Japan's growth was fast from two nuclear bombs to the peak in 1990. Korea's was slightly faster starting from the Korean War. China's rise clearly appears to be even faster which quickly leads to talks of bubble markets. One thing sure is that China looks like a high beta version of EEM which in turn looks like a high beta version of Canada which is like a high beta version of the US. Drops have proven to be sharp and painful but with quick bounce backs. My call is for a significant slowdown in the US with primary focus on the consumer as the subprime mess/real estate drop moves to other parts of the credit system bringing the latest form of contagion. China's exporting to the "Walmarts" of the western world will take a hit and I think it's just a matter of when considering the potential for continued rate cuts (what does the Fed know that the market does not) and a nagging concern of potential stagflation (I don't think it'll go there) among other red flags that seem to keep popping up on radar screens. |
|
|
|
+
|
MOO
|
$53.61
|
$59.1
|
Long Stock
|
-9.29%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting MKT VECT AGRBSHS: I'm bullish on the overall commodity complex in the longer term (not as much as Jim Rogers) but I can't be sure about agriculture for the long term. However, for the next 3 months, I think that agri-business will continue to get a lot of press as oil moves up closer to 125. DBA may be another ETF play in this sector and possibly a smarter choice in terms of risk-adjusted return in the longer term but for the purposes of this contest, I prefer the volatility of MOO. |
|
|
|
+
|
CCJ
|
$32.94
|
$42.08
|
Long Stock
|
-21.72%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting CAMECO CP: To continue on the commodity theme, and the alternative energy sub-theme, uranium/nuclear is a compelling area. Uranium prices doubled in the 5 calendar years leading up to 2007 when it cooled off a bit. 2007 actually looked good until CCJ fell about 37.5% over 2 months. Worse yet, uranium prices fell by more than half from April to August. Interesting that NLR (a new ETF for the sector) came out just about at the bottom in August. CCJ is a higher beta version of NLR's underlying index so it's my choice - again for the volatility. Longer term, NLR is likely the better choice for this theme. |
| Total | -5.02% | |
|
5
|
herb41
|
+
|
CSWC
|
$123.72
|
$117.74
|
Long Stock
|
5.08%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting CAPITAL SOUTHWEST: good |
|
|
|
+
|
RSH
|
$16.25
|
$17.16
|
Long Stock
|
-5.3%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting RADIOSHACK CORP: good |
|
|
|
+
|
NAK
|
$9.16
|
$13.65
|
Long Stock
|
-32.89%
|
1/2/2008
|
| | Reasons for selecting NORTHERN DYNASTY: good |
| Total | -11.04% | |
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